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Quick description of data mining: If you lay on your back and stare at the clouds long enough, you'll see a cloud that looks like an elephant. That doesn't mean you're looking at a real goddam elephant.
I did some computations a few years back regarding the CAPPS II thing which I believe was rejected eventually. Using conservative estimates (conservative in a scientific sense, not politically) and Bayes theorem, I computed that using such a system, the probability that a person identified as a terrorist ACTUALLY IS a terrorist is about 1 in 50,000. Imagine being a poor airport security officer, knowing that each time a red flag comes up there is practically no chance that the suspected flyer is a terrorist. Utterly demoralizing, and it would completely defeat the intentions of the system.
It's really weird that it takes the concentrated effort of a team of experts to convince the government of something which is just common sense to the average person.
