"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." - John Kenneth Galbraith

Any way you slice & dice it, the unescapable truth is that the PS3 and XBox 360 will continue to wage a brutal, costly, bloody horsepower war for the title of #1 console - to the detriment of both Sony's & MS's gaming divisions...

While Nintendo will continue to sit pretty and uber-profitable in the #2 slot while selling shitloads and shitloads of Wiis.

Sometimes in the land of 800-lb gorillas, it's easiest to be the lemur...;)

PS3 might win out in the end, but with the money they're spending on advertising it might turn out to be a phyrric victory.

Meanwhile, when was the last time you saw a tv spot for XBOX 360? I'm biased, but Halo 3 sells itself.

- octosquid on XBOX live

PS and XBox are clawing at each other for the same players, while Wii is off grabbing a different type of user. Wii may get to be the second system a PS/XBox owner buys, but the choice most people are making is XBox or PS3, not XBox or Wii or PS3. Folks who consider themselves "serious" gamers (a distinction, I confess, that makes me chuckle) don't consider Wii a real contender, at least not in its current form.

Wii may get to be the second system a PS/XBox owner buys, but the choice most people are making is XBox or PS3

I think this is more accurate:

Wii may get to be the second system a PS/XBox gamer buys, but the choice most gamers are making is XBox or PS3

The choice most PEOPLE are making is the Wii.

And it is the Wii that is bridging the gap between the world of online gaming and the "casual" electronics consumer.

Certainly there are enough quote-unquote 'serious' gamers out there to keep the Xbox & PS3 afloat; but, as a previous poster noted, at the end of the financial day Nintendo will be the only one smiling with a relatively humungous profit.

I think the thing to keep in mind is that they are global numbers. Xbox360 will beat PS3 in America but Japan and Europe are probably where these guys think Sony will catch up.

The important thing is for them to keep putting out games....

And since if we can count on anything it's that Microsoft is as stubborn and tunnel visioned as a company can get, we can bet that Xbox will continue to tout its HD-DVD long past any rational excuse. Therefore PS3 with its Blu-Ray player will eventually pull ahead. At best, Microsoft will eventually and begrudgingly offer a Blu-Ray player about 1 year later than they should and it will cost $150 more than competitors and it will have technical problems and it will come with some breathtaking DRM and Xbox Live tie in.

And the whole Blu-Ray/HD-DVD debate will be moot...

I'd just like my XBox to work consistently.

Some great games but I will never buy another piece of Microsoft hardware.

It's certainly good for Sony if the PS3 can eventually vindicate itself, but how much more revenue stream can that generate (in games sold, I guess, since I understand that's the point of counting the installed user base) by that point before they move onto the next generation?

It's kind of a late surge for Sony, but I guess some improvement is better than no improvement.

My own analysis is based on personal experience only, since I'm not a serious gamer, but seem to be surrounded by them. I overhear a lot of conversations among the friends of my daughter (late teens to early twenties), and also when I take my son to buy games for his Wii (I admit to being a bit enamoured of Wii Sports myself, but I am way casual.)

When I talk to people or overhear the arguing among gamers, it's always about the relative merits of PS3 vs. XBox. Wii is considered by the folks who care enough about it to argue to be more a novelty system. ("No 1080i?! Get thee behind me, Wii!") Even so, a number of them have a Wii in addition to their system of choice. ("Cause it's kinda fun sometimes.")

But in the end, my sample size is so small and my own interest so peripheral, it's impossible for me to know how much my observations reflect the larger reality.

Since MS will introduce the XBox 720 or whatever they call it sometime in 2009. Meanwhile Sony will continue selling PS3's well into 2014, at lower and lower price points, just like they did with the original Playstation. 2009 is probably also when the XBox will come with Blu-Ray (if that's still the standard then) and introduce Wii like features to start chipping away at Nintendo.

Why would it be unlikely that millions will start buying the PS3 for its Blu-Ray disc-playing capabilities?

With the price of the PS3 and a new Blu-Ray stand-alone so close together, wouldn't it be a waste of money to just pick up a Blu-Ray player that doesn't play games? Don't I get more for the same money?

Is PS3's Blu-Ray player not the same as a stand-alone player?

I'd like to know soon. I was going to pick one up today :]

I just purchased a ps3 because it has the blueray and it can also take a standard dvd from 480 to 1080. the cost of a stand alone blue ray is 399 the same as the 40 gig ps3. I went for the 80gig ps3 though even though its 499 because it will play ps2 games too. I own a wii and really enjoy it. I also like the graphics of the ps3. the xbox looks really good but I have a ps2 already it just made since to get the ps3 especially since the 80g is backward compatible. xbox and ps3 are both very expensive when you start buying much needed cables and controllers. wii has been wining because of value and fun. fun is why we play and we play what we can afford. there also seems to be more value in the ps3 than there is in the xbox. ps3 1 wii 2