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Wednesday, June 24, 2009 12:00 AM

Economists in disarray: Everything's "unexpected"

Durable good orders jump, new home sales fall. The only consistent indicator: Forecasters are surprised

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  • Wednesday, June 24, 2009 11:30 AM

    Can we maybe retire the "green shoots" phrase?

    Please. Please.

    Nothing is in the category of "growing" until...well...it actually is. Seeing a spike in durable goods is not unexpected, at least not where I sit. People have put off major purchases (which is what durable goods -- things like refrigerators, air conditioners, new digital televisions, cars -- are) and now there may be some pent up demand showing itself as a temporary spike...which is more or less what I think this number reflects.

    I mention A/C units above for a good reason: I live in the south and this time of year is when everything from window units to large new central air/heat pump systems see sales go through the roof. It's hot down here. And humid. Anyway...that's what I think.

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