Until today. For the first time in 18 weeks, the total number of people collecting unemployment fell by 15,000, to 6,735,000.

Some people have been out of work for so long that their unemployment benefits have run out. According to our wonderful government, they're not "unemployed" anymore. Of course, they're still not employed, so I guess that makes them nobodies.

You speak myth.

"unemployed" status is removed if one stops seeking employnment. One is not removed if unemployment benefits run out as long as they are still seeking employment.

Ferstanze?

The number being reported as "good news" is the count of people collecting unemployment, which does decrease when peoples' unemployment insurance runs out.

Read the quote again--"the total number of people collecting unemployment..."

Collecting unemployment, NOT unemployed.

Plus the govt has had to go back and revise unemployment UPWARD several times already. I wouldn't depend on a short term glimpse to base any thoughts of recovery on.

How many workers have either run out of benefits, are working at jobs beneath their skill sets (a PH.D driving a taxi or serving coffee at a Starbucks), or have simply dropped out of the workforce out of sheer funk ? Almost certainly more than the central government is letting on.

I'll bet my next cup of Hot Cinnamon Sunset that the real unemployment rate is over 11 %, the unemployed-plus-underemployed rate is 13 % +, and the unemployed/underemployed/discouraged-worker rate combined is reaching 16 %. And that's in relatively prosperous places. In Michigan or Upstate NY ? Try 12, 15, 20 %.

Meanwhile, the Great Black Hope, Barack "the One" Obama takes his wife out on a quick little $ 25,000 jaunt to Broadway for dinner and a show, keeps the comatose GM and Chrysler from liquidating and letting other firms find actual job-creating uses for their assets, and is in the process of fueling an inflation that will wipe out the value of the few dollars the unemployed and their families still have left.

Gee, thanks, Barry !

Your servant,

Lord Karth

Alkaline #1: “Some people have been out of work for so long that their unemployment benefits have run out.”

Rockstar: True! A simple statement. No argument here.

Alkaline#2:” According to our wonderful government, they're not "unemployed" anymore.”

Rockstar: False! Again, "unemployed" status is removed only if one stops seeking employment. One is not removed if unemployment benefits run out as long as they are still seeking employment.

Alkaline’s statement is categorically wrong.

Rockstar: 1

Alkaline: 0

The simple fact is that the government chooses to report a number that is less pessimistic (collecting unemployment), rather than the more useful (and more pessimistic) total of people unemployed.

whether these numbers track undocumented workers. I assume not since they can't receive unemployment. As a result and judging by remittances to Mexico, the actual hit to the economy is far larger.

Let me slap you silly with some knowledge!

Today’s data - weekly jobless claims - are released every Thursday. Let me repeat. This data is released every week. The government did not “choose” to release it today. It’s on a schedule.

The data you’re looking for – nonfarm payroll – is released tomorrow. I’m sure HTWW will post shortly after release.

There just isn’t a conspiracy here.

Jeezus. Can't you see that I'm only pointing out that the news we're discussing isn't quite as good as it sounds? (not that it's all that good anyway).

I guess it's easy for the author to be optimistic because, hi, you still have a job.

The pace of layoffs may have slowed, but please get through your head that there are NO JOBS OUT THERE that pay more than what I'm getting on unemployment. I have no incentive to take a job that pays less or even the same.

Completely true.

Most of the jobs out there right now would be awesome- if I were still 17 years old, in high school, and living with my parents. Otherwise, not so much. It's insane that there are so many jobs that pay so little, that I would actually "make" more by staying on unemployment.

As for the jobs that are good and legitimate, the competition is overwhelming. I was on an interview last month for a job- the woman conducting the interview told me offhandedly that the interview pool of 15 was cut down...from 400.

Scary, scary times. I hope things start turning around, and quick.

Alkaline: "Can't you see that I'm only pointing out that the news we're discussing isn't quite as good as it sounds?"

You never made an analytical comment on the claims data until now. In three consecutive posts you have:

1) Perpetuated the myth that those loosing unemployment insurance are not counted as unemployed.

2) Suggested that the US govt was voluntarily releasing misleading information (unemployment claims) while withholding more important data (nonfarm payrolls).

3) Spelled Jesus wrong. Hardy har har.

Score at the end of 3 innings:

Rockstar 3

Alkaline 0

That's the difference between 6,750,000 and 6,735,000. Seems not too far removed from statistical noise. I mean, if you were standing in the middle of a sea of six and three quarter million people and fifteen thousand of them vanished, unless one of the vanished was standing next to you, would you even notice?

I'll raise the same question that others have raised: How much of the decrease in continuing claims for benefits (which is where this "good" number comes from) are due to people who have exhausted their benefits? Jobs are still being lost at a pretty astounding clip and unemployment is still rising.

Finally, why would the layoff of more than 620,000 be reason to think that the worst is over? That number may be down from the truly horrendous peak, but it's still way, way high. In fact, it wasn't until the end of January of this year that initial claims for UI exceeded 600k in this downturn, and whatever "good" news we are supposed to get from 620k sort of gets blunted by the fact that initial claims were 605k in back on May 2. So we're higher than that now.

The bottom line here is that you can't micro-parse the data. Week to week results don't mean much. It's the bigger picture you need to look at, and in that regard, the moving average actually went up by 4k. Go figure.

(You can run the numbers on claims here: http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp , or click my sig.)