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Key for me that helps debunk "the speculators did it" argument: "...and far-out, forward contracts rose much faster than spot prices."
Indeed. What do people think became of the fortunes of those people who held those contracts? If you bet on futures, you either have to be able to sell your contract or take delivery. And at delivery, the thing that counts is the actual price, not the price that you bet on.
If you can't hoard (and look up what happens to great fortunes like those of the Hunt Bros who gambled on cornering the silver market), you can't drive price. You may effect it a little, but when there is excess supply of a commodity, you won't affect it a lot or for long.
Margins between production and demand in a fast growing world economy were slim. Now in a contracting world economy? Demand destruction means we are basically awash in oil. But when this all turns around (and eventually it will), the price of oil will once again head towards the sky.
People can say I'm wrong if they want, but if they do, I hope they are later kind enough to admit it. I know that I will happily admit it if it turns out that my take here is misguided. Hell, I hope it is misguided. Who wants to pay four to ten bucks a gallon for gas/diesel/heating oil? Not me, I promise.
