With respect, while we are in an extreme economic downturn which will most likely lead to continued major restructuring, and while we certainly could fall into a major depression and complete social collapse, we are currently nowhere near 'economic Armageddon.'

Thanks for posting this. While politicians and media are finally paying attention to climate change, and arguing for the development of alternative energy sources, no one wants to broach the possibility that Peak Oil theorists might be right. If they are, that'll end the party right quick....

no one wants to broach the possibility that Peak Oil theorists might be right.

the interesting thing about this is that several oil companies are now beginning to publicly recognize peak oil. I know Shell, Conoco, and BP have all had a CEO or other representatives openly discuss peak oil. It's the freaking media and politicians (and Exxon, of course) that are the dead weight here, as usual.

This is why I wish that gas had stayed at $4/gallon or gone higher; if nothing else it would force people to talk about the issue. Now we've been granted a temporary reprieve on prices and everyone acts like it's no longer an issue. It will go back up, and it will become an issue, and maybe then we can get serious about the development of sustainable mass transit and shifting the American culture away from the automobile.

First, per capita usage of fuel is down dramatically. That's not just unusual, it's revolutionary. Americans are actually using LESS of a resource than we used TEN years ago. Americans conserving? Amazing.

Second, the change has come very quickly. Habits generally take time to change. If people decide to drive more economical cars, they probably won't just go out and sell their current car. They will wait until they would have purchased a new car and then buy a more fuel-efficient model. Hybrids are becoming more economical, but the overall price is still much higher than non-hybrid cars with nearly as good fuel efficiency. There are waiting lists for hybrids (or were until the bust, at least) and large trucks are rotting on lots. The auto dealerships who used to have rows and rows of F150's are out of business, and the newer dealers have compacts and microcompacts in the front rows. Fuel going up to $4/gallon scared the heck out of people, and they won't quickly forget the feat. They know that it will happen again, and the next time they buy a car the idea that it might cost them $100 to fill the tank will be in the back of their minds.

And a lot of the changes that happened during the recent fuel price jump are permananent. It became economical to find cheaper ways to transport goods, and even with lower fuel prices it is still cheaper to use those transport mechanisms. People switched from using fuel oil or propane (a byproduct of oil which varies in price with oil) to wood stoves, or paid for insulation, or bought sweaters. So many changes have happened, and as people replace cars and heaters the changes will continue.

"Peak oil" is a bit of an urban legend, or at least a seriously misnamed concept. It's like "global warming" - the name doesn't reflect what it is. Oil production isn't really peaking. CHEAP oil production is peaking. The easily accessed oil is getting harder to find, but as it become more scarce the price goes up and harder to harvest oils become profitable, such as the tar sands in Canada and shale oils in the U.S.

We will have plenty of oil for a very long time, because price controls demand. As oil becomes too expensive (let's imagine it as $20/gallon?) for the masses, we will change our societal structure to reduce usage. More telecommunting, less travel by automobile. Perhaps a 4 10 hour day work week to make commuting less onerous for those who can't work at home. More public transportation. Local stores will become more popular in rural areas. People won't travel 50 miles to go to Wal-Mart once a week. People will buy smaller homes closer to work because they just can't afford suburbs. Purchases will get more expensive, so people won't just replace their television and microwave every time they break. We will find alternative sources for things like heating our homes (solar may even become economical for the middle class). All of the little changes will add up to less oil usage, which will result in oil lasting longer for our society.

So "Peak oil" should really be changed to reflect the reality that we will have oil, but it will cost a lot more. I can't think of a simple name right now, but I'm a bit weak at memetics. Perhaps we should simply be telling people that the "era of cheap fuel" is nearing it's end, and they had better plan accordingly.

as has been discussed for many years now, the United States backed itself into a corner from which it cannot get out...not without a lot of pain. That corner is suburban and exurban sprawl. Most people, most places in this country, cannot go ANYWHERE without a car. Period.

That's why we keep gulping down the oil. And why we keep buring it up in gasoline. We are burning the most precious and valuable substance ever discovered in the history of mankind, to run countless millions of personal heat-engines that are 25% efficient, if that. Humans centuries from now will regard us as the absolute dumbest people who ever lived.

Why do we do this? We all know the reasons. The biggest one is simple vested interest. A lot of very powerful people profit enormously from burning up gasoline in heat-engines and those people are not about to give up their profit. Nor are all the powerful people who build our housing going to give up their ways easily.

And, of course, we are all to blame, for using the heat-engines so heedlessly.

Which is why a fully rebuilt, re-imagined rail system in this country is no longer a luxury, and why electric cars are no longer some toy, or some backyard project. We better do something soon, because if we don't, our ultimate come-to-jesus moment in this area is going to be very, very ugly.