Bargains abound in the markets today, but this is not one of them.

true enough monsanto posted some surprisingly positive numbers, and the stock popped a bit. Still, the stock is still down -31% over the last year vs. -35% for the S&P 500, so it seems they have suffered too.

The financial pages I've read recently have long been touting Monsanto and other agriculture-related companies. This area is expected to grow because of global warming. Farmed food will need to be genetically modified to live in warmer, wetter climes and face new diseases and these are the companies poised to do that.

Early in the 14th century there was a significant climate change, a cooling, and the resulting crop loss spurred wars. In a way, one can say Monsanto's health is good for all of us. I don't own stock in them.

Was Dollar General.

Monsanto's profitability, that is.

My day job is editing and writing for agricultural publications. What happened is that the huge spike in commodity prices obviously led to heightened interest in crop inputs that would boost production by farmers -- and at those prices, who could blame them?

Now two things will conspire against this sector over the next couple of years.

First, a lot of farmers bought their inputs (seed, fertilizer, pesticides, etc.) at the absolute peak of the market. They're largely (and especially the fertilizers) commodities too and they were part of the same cycle. Now these farmers, facing lower crop prices, are going to have a hard time recouping that money from the market... hence leaving them with less capital to invest for the next season.

Secondly, the financial crisis is going to hit the ag sector as hard as any. I'm already hearing reports that there are farmers, especially in emerging economies, who simply can't get operating loans -- which obviously affects their ability to purchase these crop inputs.

Over time this situation will 'normalize' or as much as anything ever normalizes in agriculture. But in the meantime I'd expect all the input companies, including Monsanto, to post lower numbers going forward.

By the way, Andrew, Salon needs a food and agriculture blog. I've always been more than a little amused at the way the media always ignores the industry that's been both the foundation and the mortar of modern civilization.

Any way you could use your great pull as the site's financial guy to convince your management? I can recommend a few present and former colleagues who would absolutely kill at this.

;-D

Mr. Vilsack was just appointed Secretary of Agriculture. He is a big Monsanto booster. Obama has shown no opposition yet to ethanol, GMOs or corporate agriculture. So Monsanto should be happy... even if, as other writers point out, present earnings reflect a temporary 'commodity' boost.

Maybe Monsanto won't have to bully farmers anymore to 'protect' their seed "patents!" But don't bet on it.

......How about letting us know how? Do the numbers appear worse or better than they would under the old system? .......As far as Monsanto is concerned, they're a "friend" of no one but Monsanto. Their genetically modified crops have done more to harm to the environment than Global Warming could ever accomplish. The blissfully ignorent will plant and consume this 'modified' garbage and eventually pay a far larger price.

I wouldn't bet the farm so quickly on Monsanto. There was an article in The Independent about the rebirth of organic farming in emerging markets, specifically Malawi. Farmers there have been priced out of chemical fertilizers and have turned back to traditional methods and found that their yields are better. Yes, the climate is changing and we will need to adapt, but I'm not convinced that genetically engineering our way out is the solution to this mess. Link to the article by clicking on my name.

I'm not shocked at all. This is the result of policy at all levels.

Basically we've built globalization on the back of the American consumer even as the wages, job security, benefits have declined. The idea was to use credit to make up for the fact that first world labor force is getting shafted under globalization.

Now the pony has collapsed. The global economy has nothing to ride anymore.

We're not just going through a bad patch. The model is broken. What will take its place?

re: We're not just going through a bad patch. The model is broken. What will take its place?

Ditto.

I've been saying this for a long time now (you may wish to peruse my previous posts on the subject).

The real problem is the powers-that-be continue to beat on the chest of a corpse. Everything they are doing is a vain attempt to resurrect the consumer debt-driven economy. They are in fact speeding up the collapse.

As to what will take its place, I am very pessimistic. Given that there are huge vested interests in perpetuating the status quo, and given that the status quo cannot in fact be perpetuated, I see nothing but a continuing spiral downward. I believe that as things get uglier, we are going to return to the law of the jungle.

The problem is, some of the gorillas have nuclear weapons.