The NBER fudges the numbers - our government inflation figures aren't any more reliable than China's or Zimbabwe's. The CPI doesn't accurately measure the cost of a consistant standard of living, rather a declining one. Check www.shadowstats.com for figures according to the formulas from before they started fiddling the numbers.

One side will misuse the data to portray the economy in a positive light, the other will misuse the data to portray the economy in a negative light.

Which do you think is better for the economy?

You people must make for lively dinner conversation.

The lowest trade deficit in 8 years with the dollar in the toilet and imported energy prices through the roof is clearly nothing but good news.

The fact that the better numbers is the result of increased exports makes it even better news.

Now for your other nonsense: It takes almost 1.5 dollars to buy one Euro--not exactly the resurgent dollar you're warning about. And with regard to the unemployment numbers, use percentages next time. Counts mean nothing with a growing population. Using percentages, we're still not all that bad in a historical context.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

I was looking at the exact same page. We have some very average unemployment right now. I hate it when I hear stuff like "the highest rate in 4 years". That doesn't mean shit.

The economy has got to be pretty tough to withstand the huge foreclosure fallout. Damn those Bush taxcuts!

If the economy is so horrible, why is the Dark Knight setting humongous revenue records, I-Phones and I-Pods are getting gobbled up, Nintendo Wii's and Grand Theft Auto are huge, and people have no problem paying 100 bucks for an NFL game?

A booming economy and full employment are two distinctly different and somewhat disconnected things. Yes employment is down and real wages are down. Yes exports are up. Yes the US dollar value of those exports are up.

We call that globalization, when a nations economy becomes less tied to indigenous and local factors and inputs.

"If the economy is so horrible, why is the Dark Knight setting humongous revenue records, I-Phones and I-Pods are getting gobbled up, Nintendo Wii's and Grand Theft Auto are huge, and people have no problem paying 100 bucks for an NFL game?"

The bifurcation of classes and the enormous disparities in income in this country is enough to dismiss your argument.

I know lotsa people with money. Maybe you're one of them.

I ain't. And there are lots of people like me, too.

>If the economy is so horrible, why is the Dark Knight setting humongous revenue records

Saying nothing about the economy itself...

For comparison, look at the returns on the original "King Kong" during the height of the Great Depression. I've seen it argued that during bad times, people are more likely to hit the movies - escapism, and all that, and considering Batman is fantasy (about bad times, too), it makes sense.

I would consider a lot of things, including those purchases you mention, to be more or less red herrings. This is especially so since they really aren't *that* pricey, despite appearances, as their "return" for entertainment versus dollars spent is or can be pretty high.

Real determinations of economic strength need to be found elsewhere.

I noticed that you didn't include car sales in your list of things people are gobbling up...

And using box office numbers in a discussion of economic indicators is wonderful; talking about the pitfalls of using raw numbers vs., say, inflation-adjusted figures (see e.g. http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/, where Batman is mired in 17th place, just above Home Alone).

Besides, movies are somewhat countercyclical; when times are tough, people want escapism (I know I do).

While we are at it:

- "U.S. mobile-handset sales were down 13 percent in the second quarter compared to the same quarter in 2007, NPD Group said in a study released Tuesday" (http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10020068-94.html)

- Gaming is up YoY (http://metue.com/08-14-2008/july-2008-npd-gaming-retail-recap/); which is nice, but that's a ~$10-20B a year industry- if the whole industry were a single company, it would maybe be big enough for the Fortune 500 (slot 499 or so).

- Apple is #337 on the Fortune 500. Good for them, but our economy's health cannot be adequately assessed by looking at t sales trends for #337.

HTWW should stay within its area of expertise. Earlier this summer, HTWW brazenly claimed recession was obvious, certain even. You see, HTWW knows how the world works, even though it usually "skips over the numbers".

HTWW may eventually be right, someday. The financial sector is still troubled, and global growth is softening. That does not guarantee a recession though; the US will probably avoid one.

We all know these numbers are as phony as Milli Vanilli at a costume party.

For a more accurate look at the various numbers spewed out by Big Brother, see:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

"I know lotsa people with money. Maybe you're one of them."

No, I am not one of them, I would definitely be considered lower-middle class. Don't know why you don't have money, but if you work hard, there are plenty of jobs available for ANYONE WILLING TO WORK. Heck, you can wait tables and make a decent living. Then become a bartender and make a much better than average living. You have to work your butt off, but it IS possible. You can work in a factory and make a decent living. Join a freaking union!

"The bifurcation of classes and the enormous disparities in income in this country is enough to dismiss your argument."

I think that says more about the people involved in the economy, rather than the actual economy itself. You can't legislate the CEO's to share their money. I hardly think it dismisses my argument.

syphax:

Car sales are down (well atleast with US car companies) because OIL IS UP, which makes GAS MORE EXPENSIVE, so people want HIGH GAS MILEAGE, but the market is flooded with LOW MILEAGE SUV's , so people wait to buy cars till they have better alternatives.

I am not saying the economy is great, but it is not like the Great Depression that people want you to believe. People have jobs, nobody is starving in the streets, etc.

The only REAL indicator is the slow GDP growth in recent quarters, and that's up in the most recent one. The foreclosure thing is not the fault of politicians, its the fault of bad lender policies, greedy bankers and materialistic people who wanted houses they couldn't afford.