The Guardian article says:

[...]because China's arable land is shrinking every year due to industrialization[...]

Another major problem facing China (and many other parts of the world) is rapidly advancing desertification. See, for example, this UN Food and Agriculture report

http://www.fao.org/docrep/w7539e/w7539e03.htm

one of many articles found with a quick Google search of 'Desertification in China'. More than six years ago (January '02) Agence France-Presse reported

"Desertification has affected 28 per cent of China's land mass, with 18 per cent of the country turning to waste through the effects of overgrazing, deforestation and other ravages, the China Daily said, citing a State Forestry Administration survey. The report followed another survey last week which showed soil erosion affected 37 per cent of China's land."

China could suspend all industrialization tomorrow and still be faced with incredible challenges to its agricultural capacity.

Mr. Leonard,

Your article is spot-on, but there are lots of reasons for Monsanto *not* to worry.

Monsanto is locked out of the Chinese market anyhow--by law, all foreign seed companies are locked out. The most they can do is "collaborate" with Chinese seed producers.

If, and this is a big if, China's seed technology is *better* than Monsanto's, competing with Monsanto for world market share will cost hundreds of million$ to meet registration requirements. Only a giant multinational can afford those costs, and none of China's seed companies is able to afford that.

China is likely to roll out a Bt rice product. Monsanto isn't about to roll out Bt rice, largely because a backlash by activists would paralyze world trade in rice. Like back when some herbicide-tolerant rice was discovered. Lawsuits over that are still pending.

What we *all* should worry about is repeated shocks to world trade as Chinese biotech products show up in food stocks. China recently announced, for example, that phytase corn would soon hit the market. It isn't registered *anywhere* yet. When China releases that, and Bt rice, the world food supply will convulse. These things will be safe to eat--and, likely safer than conventional. But that won't matter when the boycotts and recalls start popping up.