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The way I see it is that Bush simply has nothing to offer but dinosaur strategies like more drilling to combat the energy crisis. In his first speech on this issue he argued for drilling in ANWR, now he's arguing for off-shore. The basic lack of creative, outside of the box thinking is really what dooms this approach, never mind whether it would or wouldn't drive prices down. As Andrew points out, it might do so for the short term, but it's no long-term solution.
What surprises me is that McCain is hitching his cart to this flaming Hindenberg of a policy. If people have any sense at all and are as weary and wary of the intellectually bankrupt Bush agenda as I am, he has no chance this fall.