Letters to the Editor
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Jobs & Durable Goods
Look at the jobs market and you'll see the story of a recession. Companies are cutting, few are hiring, salaries are stagnant.
Durable goods are also in a heavy decline, no-one is buying. Toyota had its first annual decline in 7 years. Inflation is up, bankruptcies are up, jobless numbers are up, etc...
The traditional economic numbers, especially GDP, don't accurately reflect how most people are doing in the economy. The reality is that the economy has been crap since 2000 except for the richest 1%. Their performance has skewed the numbers enough that Bush can claim things were going well for awhile, now even they are starting to feel the drag.
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I'm in the B2B side of the economy
Not the consumer end, and capital spending and capital budgeting is down for this quarter.
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Suicide is painless (lyrics from Mash)
If the economy was slowing down, wouldn't you expect bargain-basement outlets like Wal-mart and CostCo to do relatively well? That line is perfect. What sort of economy depends on consumer spending to make the numbers? And if fewer people are shopping at Nordstroms, and more people are shopping at Walmart, what does that say? Consumer spending is up, because people pay for more gasoline, (and everything else).
Since there are no jobs, other than US government jobs, and their contractors, there is no possiblity of a recession. An economic downturn by their standards would be happening on the dark side of the moon. So who cares? and that's the real issue here, who cares?. Wall Street still has money flowing into their hands, boatloads of dollars created during the era of monetary excess.
The real issue for them, is what happens when the Fed decides to mop up that extra cash? The financial people, (all that's left of the capitalistic society) may lose their bonuses, but the pension funds for everyone else will disappear.
The baby boomers will be too old to make more money, and too poor to live their retirement dreams, and too old to take to the streets like they did in the 60's. But who ever protested economic policy, other than French students?
Well there is a new generation of college kids, most who have paid dearly for college educations they cannot use. Maybe they'll take up the cause.
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Slow Down Apparent
In my little neck of the woods, OC, CA the economy seems to be slowing down, and how could it not with gas prices hovering at around $4 here? No wait at popular resturants at lunch time any more - although most are still 2/3 to nearly full. Lots of chains are offering kids eat free, or free something for weekday dinners. Many of the mall retailers seem to have a sale everyother day like 20% off everything in the store or buy one get free where they used to only reduce last season's leftovers. Malls are not filling their vacant spots. Even the local Starbucks' and Bagel shops that used to have long waits now just have moderate lines during peak hours. I'm not saying that there aren't plenty of people with plenty of money to spend still walking around, but business is most certainly not booming.
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Why do you want to hype up a recession so much anyways?
Why do you want it to be a recession so badly? Because it makes Bush look bad? This country has gone through WAY worse times than an economy that is growing by only 0.6%. Look at the historical numbers, IT HAPPENS.
Quit screaming all you chicken littles, and maybe people won't be so scared to actually go spend money.
But I guess I'm forgetting this is an election year. Like the President can just magically make the economy better anyways.
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at my house...
we're in a recession. Not because one of us lost a job, but because of more credit card debt than either of us would like. Kinda embarrassing, and I hate to admit it, we did it to ourselves. The only way to get out is to stop spending, on nearly everything that's not required. That means Costco and Grocery Outlet, not the Expensive Food Museum. That means a meal out is take and bake pizza. That means family entertainment is a video rental at the library, not movie tickets.
We haven't lost a job, but our own poor choices (I know, no one did this but us) make me very uneasy. We can do without a lot of starbuck's trips to dig out of this.
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Well, consider the source...
It will become obvious to all that we are not in recession after we see the effects of Iraqi oil, which has been paying for the War of Liberation there for some time now, on the American economy. This was made possible by the discovery of WMDs with a note attached saying "To Bush, Mom and Apple Pie" in Saddam and Osama's love bungalow we found outside Baghdad with the help of flower-throwing crowds. The best thing you all can do is drive to Disneyworld in your SUVs.
Now, if there are no more questions, Supreme Chancellor Cheney must return to his undisclosed location.
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@kufir77
Why do you want it to be a recession so badly? Because it makes Bush look bad?
IMO, we need another point of view to balance Bush's assertions that everything is just wonderful except for a little temporary blip.
Bush is desperately trying to minimize the problem because his chickens have inconveniently come home to roost during an election year.
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Sort of a recession?
Hey Andy,
I too am having a difficult time with these people dancing around this recession. While some couch their words referring to it as a slow down, and others refer to its' length in terms of Friedman Units (SIX MONTHS from now it will be over). I do not believe either.
A Kevin Phillips article today over at The Huff Post, lays out how the CPI has been and is being used to hide the true level of inflation. The end assessment is that the public at large is being lulled/manipulated into the belief that this is something that will pass shortly. or something not to be concerned with at all.
I would speculate that this is just another crisis that will be strung out and handed off to the next president. However, this is a problem that we are just too deep into and the contortions that the financial industry is undertaking, to make us believe that this recession is not here or will soon pass, are quite extraordinary.
Where the rhetoric will end or where it will take us I do not know, Except, that it will not be pleasant.
footsore