Letters to the Editor
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Numbers ?
I don't believe for a second that the economy is in great shape. Could it be that the economic statisticians have been politicized like everything else in the government ?
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@Marshall
I suspect that Bush has secretly pardoned the Enron culprits and put them to work on the federal budget.
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Why do most pseudo economist fail basic math?
I guess it is true that at heart most economists are frustrated mathematicians.
A GDP number not adjusted for inflation and dollar devaluation (or valuation whatever the case might be) only tells a part of the story.
I always get a chuckle about these hacks trying to put in article form the old adagio of "who are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?"
The US economy has been a house of cards, and it is tumbling down. Yet there is not short supply of street con men who want us to play yet another round of spot the queen.
"Round and round she goes... doesn't she? Where she stops? Nobody knows... ladies and gent please make your bets!"
I have an idea, why don't these hacks get a real job instead of trying to defend a pyramidal scheme. Oh, and brush up on simple math... please!
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a simple thought...
since all the government #'s are a lie(i mean if you have to walk out of the house,you know there is real inflation out there,for real things we buy everyday),a simple question.if assets inflate,and the dow doubles,do you still feel richer if the trip though the fast food stop that cost you $5 costs you $20?the fed has killed the dollar,something that isn't a good thing overall,and you have to ask yourself why.
we seem to live in this crazy time where the PTB think you can have capitalism without ever having a reccesion.but real capitalism is a creative/destructive exersize.instead of trying to avoid a reccesion,because it provides needed brush clearing,we should worry about helping people through them when they happen.
if the fed had not been reckless,and had not cut rates to 1% after '00(and by doing so punish savers and retired folks),we would have had a downturn,the companies that would have gone under would have gone under,and new businesses would have been created.we would have been through the worst.but instead the hole just keeps getting deeper.
of course if the fed had not done the dirty deed with super low rates,bush would have never had a second term....hmmm........
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The fact is no one -- from the bottom to the top -- has any real faith in our economy
I have lots of buddies all over this great country, including Florida, the Northeast and the SF Bay area. They're in every professiom from Ivy League professor to software exec to industrial maintenance.
And with one or two exceptions, they're all living in dread fear of losing their jobs. Two of my friends have been rightsized out of their $100K+ gigs over the past 18 months -- and both have since settled for jobs that pay over 40% less.
The admin can make up any numbers they want -- but when president of a very conservative credit union tells me that another 9/11 will cause this entire jury-rigged economy to implode, I think it's time to start investing in Kruggerands and canned goods.
That is, if I had any money to invest.
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Plus . . .
. . . correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there an election coming up next year?
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koko4kaka
Your letter annoyed me to no end, so let me be brief and unimaginative with my responses.
First:
GDP has been reported at a real, seasonally adjusted annual rate since like, oh, say... THE 14TH CENTURY. Get with the times here.
Second:
It's funny that you use the term "pseudo economist" in a derogatory sense, and then confuse devaluation with inflation. One refers the dollar's relation to other currencies, the other has to do with the rate of change on a price of a basket of goods. Do you know which is which, economist?
Third:
We don't want to be mathematicians. If I enjoyed abstract algebra or topology, I'd still be studying (and probably failing) it. Instead, I waste my life posting responses in Salon forums to people who are too lazy to read a good book. Like a book by someone with an article in a peer-reviewed journal. We're frustrated, but not because we want to be mathematicians.
Fourth:
"I have an idea, why don't these hacks get a real job instead of trying to defend a pyramidal scheme. Oh, and brush up on simple math... please!"
It's called a pyramid scheme. You know, like the Pyramids in Egypt? Sometimes also referred to as a Ponzi scheme. But I'm sure you knew that. And for a Ponzi scheme, we've done a pretty good of sustaining it for, oh, 200 years. That's pretty atypical of a Ponzi scheme. The only way I can understand your fear is if you told me that you lived through the Great Depression. If you don't believe me, take log GDP (yes, the REAL value) or log GDP per capita, and run a line through it. It's shockingly straight, which means Mr. "I know basic math", that we're growing at an exponential rate and have been for a REALLY long time now. Long before you or I were born.
As for the original post by Andrew:
There can be large data revisions, on occasion they even exceed 1 percent. Also, GDP data is more than a month behind and encompasses information as far back as July. The interest rate is forward looking and only incorporates previous information insofar as it forecasts future business conditions. Lastly, a lot of the growth is being generated by a shift in net exports (about 1%, last I checked)--as the currency readjusts, we don't want exporters not able to find reasonable financing to build more factories / hire more people / whatever.
Sorry for the anger, I must be in a bad mood today.
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GDP numbers - From the same folks who brought you Iraq's WMDs
The Bush Administration has been caught lying repeatedly and shamelessly. It's their trademark. They have derided the "reality-based community". They've been outed for skewing scientific data for political purposes. Hell, they friggin' STOLE the White House, for God's sake! And in most of these efforts, they've been aided and abetted by the Democratic Party and the corporate mainstream media.
So why, exactly, should we put any stock in the economic numbers they spew?
"The economic statistics put out by the US Government are propaganda, pure and simple...Issued by government agencies, interpreted by spokespersons for the Government and the financial community ... the information we get has been manipulated to mould a public understanding favourable to the agenda of the powers that be."
-economist Peter D. Schiff
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22234638-462,00.html