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Tuesday, July 3, 2007 12:00 AM

More gloom for GM and Ford, more joy for Toyota

Detroit's Big Three report continuing sales declines for June. Meanwhile, Prius hybrids are selling like hotcakes.

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Tuesday, July 3, 2007 02:16 PM

toyota electric, here we come..

It's just a matter of time before Toyota introduces a plug-in hybrid, and then a fully electric car. And that will leave Detroit far behind.

Especially since Toyota can build a great gas-guzzler with the best of them. Detroit is toast.

The first Prius was going to be a plug-in, but the oil companies that bought up all the nickle-metal-hydride battery patents, currently used in the Prius, insisted that Toyota could not use the technology unless the car used 50% gasoline for power. Not many people know this story, but it is true.

Big oil cannot buy up the new Lithium-ion battery patents, most are held in Japan. Were I running big-oil, I'd be concerned about that... because lithium batteries are the future of transportation.

The first real gasoline crisis we have, Detroit will be finished. Toyota will buy the whole city, and the companies in it, for cents on the dollar.

Tuesday, July 3, 2007 02:41 PM

Is that a lever for patent breaking?

It might be. Patent harvesting to the detriment of our national interests might be a reasonable case for patent breaking. Especially overseas. Oil companies don't have a lot of intellectual property of their own that would be a great deal of use to anyone not in the oil/chemical engineering business with the exception of harvested patents.

Plus there are lots of smart people in the world who could probably derive a similar technology using enough differences, on their own to avoid a patent fight. Oil companies can't possibly own the patents that cover every thermodynamic reaction in the world.

Tuesday, July 3, 2007 02:46 PM

It’s the 1970s All Over Again …

It’s not as if the Big Three can say they didn’t see this coming or have never experienced this before. This is exactly like the late 70s and early 80s when Japan began its takeover of the American market. The big three were stuck with outdated, oversized designs and Japan stepped up with cars that consumers wanted.

The problem is NOT COSTS. It’s the Big Threes utter inability to adapt to the marketplace. Their ability to innovate in the car market is non-existent. The idea of hybrid and electric cars has been around for decades. But rather than invest in design and production capability to meet that future demand the big three each chose to ignore that market while Toyota made those investments and is now reaping the reward (as did Honda and other foreign auto builders who were far faster at introducing competing vehicles than any of the Big Three).

The same can be said of fuel efficient cars. While Detroit fights CAFÉ standards tooth and nail Japan and Korea embrace it as a challenge and actually BUILD fuel efficient cars and trucks that meet or exceed proposed standards before they become law. Proving it can be done which makes Detroit’s cries of ‘hardship’ look silly. Again, it’s not like this wasn’t a foreseen crisis and the Big Three couldn’t have shifted its design and manufacturing investments towards this market. They CHOSE not too.

And complaining about other countries barriers to entry sounds a little hollow when the truck market (the only market the Big Three truly compete in these days) is protected by high tariffs.

Add to all that to the fact that virtually all of the vehicles Toyota and Honda sell in North America are MADE in North America and one can paint a very damning view of the Big Threes (increasingly small threes) management over the past twenty odd years..

Tuesday, July 3, 2007 02:57 PM

ghost town

My parents live in rural Michigan, and the whole state seems to be reeling, with the exception of small parts makers--you know, the companies that make the indispensable widgets that all the auto-makers need. It's honestly depressing, to hear so many sad stories--homes abandoned by families moving elsewhere for work that can't even be sold in the real estate market.

I always hear about two problems that seem to be at the root:

1)American auto companies have lobbied for so long to keep fuel efficiency and emissions requirements as low as possible; now, in the last few years, foreign countries have risen their standards far above ours and have effectively shut the gas-guzzlers out of their markets. It's a shame, but when you really think about it, it really is about the difference between a sustainable business model and, well, General Motors fleet of titanically huge vehicles that use enormous quantities of fuel.

2)Supposedly--and I cannot verify any of this--many of the American auto-makers that support the economy in parent's town have no way for their slumping sales to support the wages, salaries, and special benefits programs that have been negotiated over time by labor unions. Apparently, there are union workers who still draw salary simply by staying home and attending community college courses every semester and workers who are being paid not show up--anyone can see that this is huge expense when your sales are slipping.

Now, I am the first person to support labor unions--I do not believe the unions and the quest for a living wage is what's bringing GM down.

Really, the problem comes from the top down--there is no innovation, no drive to compete in what is no longer an American market, but a global market. If US auto-makers aren't able to offer a competitive product that people all over the world want to buy, that meets higher standards of fuel efficiency and emissions control, then sooner or later they are going to put themselves out of business.

Tuesday, July 3, 2007 03:07 PM

Yes, but...

GM said it sold 320,668 cars and light trucks in the United States last month.

The 17,756 Prius' sold barely makes a dent. I mean, it's great and all, the Prius. But the plain fact is that gas is still too cheap to push Americans towards hybrids.

I think within a few years gas will be $8 a gallon. Then we'll see conservation!

Tuesday, July 3, 2007 03:59 PM

I can imagine

The American auto industry is run by a bunch of morons similar to the kind populating the large company I currently work for.

They are basically the guys who in high school sat in the bcak, cheated on tests, bullied people, and figured they would get away with things because nobody suspects any different.

In business, you do not get away with things.

Think, most large companies, what are the priorities for average Americans? Getting ahead any which way, backstabbing, petty rivalries, brownnosing, protecting your turf, staying below the radar, short term thinking. It's all been portrayed on TV 100 times.

The reality is that other countries eat our lunch because our K-12 schools program Americans to be passive imbeciles rather than teaching them critical thinking skills.

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