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Friday, May 4, 2007 12:00 AM

Alexander Cockburn's climate change adventure

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Friday, May 4, 2007 12:57 PM

Disappointing

I'm disappointed with Alexander Cockburn's column. While I heartily agree with the analogy of carbon credits with the indulgences sold to wealthy sinners the rest of the column left much to be desired.

Climate change is a complicated science. The cavalier manner in which Cockburn brushes it aside does his readers a disservice. Who is Martin Hertzberg, PhD? Does Cockburn understand the Milankovitch cycle? I certainly don't, and I suspect the vast majority of his readers don't either.

I have two problems with the attitude of global warming naysayers:

  • Engineers understand the concept of the 'fail-safe'. That is, if something fails, it had better be in a way that does little or no damage. What is wrong with adopting this attitude towards climate change? If we do everything we can to reduce anthropogenic CO2 and it turns out that Cockburn and the nay-sayers were right, we lose little. We might even gain economically, politically, and socially from the effort to find alternatives to fossil fuels. But if we do nothing and Cockburn is wrong, what will the price be?
  • Who benefits from the "hoax"? I think it is pretty clear who benefits if we keep the status quo of blithely burning all the fossil fuel we can. But just who stands to gain from a global warming hoax? I don't get it.

I hope Cockburn recognizes the problems he faces with his argument and addresses them. Otherwise, he just might have jumped the shark.

(A minor correction to Andrew Leonard's article: Cockburn's column appeared in the Nation's special issue on Cuba, not the one on climate change.)

Friday, May 4, 2007 01:01 PM

I found it surprising too

I've always admired Cockburn's writing, as well as that of his brother's. What I detect in this crusade of his is a (perhaps misguided) desire to distinguish himself from the 'liberal' pack by taking on a contrary position, as his friend and collague Christopher Hitchens has so famously done.

It would be insane to dismiss either of these two men as some sort of puppets of the right-wing conspiracy. The fact that someone makes an argument that also happens to be made by a faction one doesn't like is not enough to discredit that person or the argument itself. This is the same tactic used by Israel to paint its critics as anti-semites or by Bush to attack democrats for being terrorist sympathizers.

Unfortunately, our society has reached the point where ideologies supercede individual arguments or facts. People mostly shape their views by supporting the opposite of things that they believe to be associated with a certain image they have in their minds of the kind of person they don't like. You see this in things like the recent decision by the fundamentalist movement to drop environmental initiatives because that's part of the 'liberal agenda'. It's not difficult to see how this leads to a vicious cycle exacerbated by the media.

However, in complex scientific cases like this, I don't see many alternatives. I consider myself a fairly well-educated person who makes a reasonable effort to stay informed. But I am no scientist. I can follow statistics and hypotheses well enough, but when talk turns to specific mechanisms and explanations, all I know is what my source tells me. And at that point it becomes a matter of how much I trust the source and what I think they are trying to accomplish.

Of course, the objective scientific truth exists, but in a practical sense, it is only accessible to the vast majority of non-scientists by way of summary and report. So my belief in man-made global warming relies mainly on mainstream media reports that "the global scientific community is in agreement". A right-winger's denial relies mainly on the links provided by conservative bloggers to dissenting studies or alternative theories. One can choose between the two on the basis that the former is more likely to be objective and has a higher standard of reliability. But my point is that for the non-scientist, it is never simply a matter of looking at objective data.

I found that Cockburn's argument against the carbon credit industry, at the least, had some good points. The rest of it I didn't buy, but at this point it's mainly because many more other writers whose opinions I also respect have disagreed. If they were to agree, my opinion would probably be swayed. Maybe this makes me a mindless puppet. Or maybe it's an inevitable result of the specialization of information in our society. I would wager that this is at least partially how even the most well-informed people ultimately make their decisions. I'm just honest enough to admit it.

Friday, May 4, 2007 01:19 PM

thanks for the correction, ramon

i'll fix the story

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