...if world production of oil hits its peak in 2040, and the world spends the intervening three decades massively investing in alternative transportation technologies, renewable energy, and energy efficiency, we might have a shot at wiggling our way out of the mess.

Outside of the scientific and environmentalist communities, there is extremely little awareness of the impending onset of peak oil. Not until: 1) gas hits $5, $6, $7 a gallon, and 2) a petroluem geologist goes on all major news channels with a line graph showing produduction declines will 90% of the public begin to take notice. Therefore the impetus for us to prepare for the inevitable will most likely remain low. The best we could hope for would be a sort of wobbly peak/plateau with periodic production shocks that raise public awareness, offset by some last new discoveries of oil coming online.

Also: The GAO's statement "establish a strategy... for addressing peak oil issues... with the intent of reducing uncertainty surrounding estimates of the timing of peak oil production." is a joke. Saudi Arabia tinkers with and revises its estimates of proven reserves every few weeks, it seems. My guess is that any sort of "certainty" in that country about when the oil runs out is most likely a Bad Thing.

-Adam in Philly

That means we can hit the "snooze" button and go back to sleep for a few more decades.

Remember? Telling Jimbo that the Soviets were hot to rape any and all oil reserves underneath Iran and Iraq..? It was bullshit, but it was enough to sculpt foreign policy.

How about: we don't buy into the bullshit Big Oil is pushing our way? Who stands to benefit from a herd of frightened sheep who think that oil production has peaked? Well, erm, that would be... Big Oil.

Why isn't the oil industry nationalized in this country if it's so fucking important..? Chew on that one for a while.

I think it's not appropriate to pick on the GAO for using the word "uncertain" (or variants) in its report. In fact it seems they got it exactly right: Peak oil is certain; its timing is not; and its consequence can be dire or not depending on when it hits. What, exactly, is there to snark in there?

It certainly is true that experts do disagree on the timing -- and we're not talking "experts" hired by megacorporations. Legitimate scientists remain unsure as to when the reserves will run out. Peak oil science, it seems to me, is much where global climate change science was in the early 1980s: Yes, there's a problem but there isn't a consensus yet on how large or how soon or how to prevent it. In those circumstances, a circumspect GAO report is entirely appropriate.

within 2 years. Count on it. It is going to happen. Anyone who trades in oil and gas reserves recognizes that it is inevitable.

I think the GAO is just being prudent, that's all, and recommending further investigation into the matter. It's called covering your... ahem... sensitive bottom.

Peak Oil always seems a bit overblown to me. Rising Oil prices -- and I have said as much here -- will mean a severe economic recession, sure. But that recession is probably coming anyway, thanks to the U.S. real estate bubble and enormous foreign debt. Both are unsustainable anyway.

But Peak Oil has its silver lining: it will push the global economy to better use its resources, recycle trash (plastic is oil, remember?) and use renewable energy sources. And these are excellent for Earth's health, and our own health as well. Even the terrible consequences of Global Warming may be somewhat mitigated by Peak Oil... So, bring it on!

Again, most "peak oilers" make the same mistake: in their minds, "Peak Oil" means no more oil. Zip. Zilch. Finished. Nada. And that is completely wrong.

What "Peak Oil" really means is this: a well that has reached its "peak" will slowly see its production decrease over time. Peak Oil means half the oil from the well reserve has been pumped out and used.

After hitting its peak, there is still oil but it will slowly become rarer and rarer until it dries out completely. Global Peak Oil means that the price of oil (following the good old rule of the market) will slowly rise and rise and rise.

But oil will still be produced, and most people will still be able to buy whatever fuel they need for whatever kind of activity they engage in. Of course, if you are smart, you will see the price of oil rising steadily (or not so steadily) and take appropriate action: switch to an hybrid car instead of a new SUV, for instance.

The people who will be left holding the bag after Peak Oil are those that do not want to plan for the future or compromise on their lifestyles. Good riddance to them.

2040 is a long way off, right? But....

I can remember in the late 80s plenty of talk about global warming, hottest year on record, and so on. Granted, Mt. Pinatubo blowing dust up in the stratosphere cooled things off for a couple of years, but still. And here we sit, even more in denial than we were 20 years ago. And alternate fuels? Gotta keep those cars going somehow, right? How about alternate transportation, how about alternate arrangements for work and residence? Still as much "utopian vision" and a subject for science fiction as they were 40 years ago. And Korea in the early 70s, when I was there in the Peace Corps, was considerably easier and cheaper to get around than my parents' hometown of Indianapolis.

Bah! 2040 will come - or peak oil, whichever comes first, and we'll still be sitting on our hands. It'll be interesting, won't it. I'll be 94 years old in 2040 - hope I'm around to give a curmudgeonly cynical laugh.

The US hit peak oil in 1973 or thereabouts. Iran hit peak oil in the last couple of years. The Saudis might have hit peak oil, but they lie about everything. Iraq is a long way from peak oil, so we have the war. The Russians might be a long way from peak oil, but they lie a lot, too. That $100 a barrel figure in two years is optimistic. I really like the idea of $5-10 gasoline, and the sooner the better. "What doesn't kill you makes your stronger".