Letters to the Editor
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Pt2
Taiwan... … is central to the point I am trying to make. … …Every single nation that has ever invaded another nation has justified it on the basis of national sovereignty. … The issue is not really that complicated.… … China wishes to invade the Island to get it back, against the wishes of its population and the rest of the world.
I would like to educate you a little about this topic. I don't mean to be "teacher-ly". But I think there is a lot of confusion about this.
I think you understand this: A) Nations go to war knowing that no matter what is outcome of the war, the end-result is worse than if they did not go to war. B) Nations initiate wars fully knowing that there is a higher probability of losing the war than winning the war (Japan in WW2) .
The Chinese leadership…as well as most Chinese people (including Taiwanese people) know that if China invades Taiwan, the following things WILL happen: Most foreign investment in China will disappear and Chinese goods will not have access to many important foreign markets. Therefore, China's industrial sector would completely collapse. There would be massive unemployment in the cities. The value of the Hong Kong stock exchange – where a lot of China's wealth is invested (through funds based on real-estate assets) would disappear. As would real-estate wealth throughout China. So housing prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Beijing, etc would drop from around 10000RMB/m2 to 2000RMB/m2. Which means the Chinese middle-class, which has been laboring like Americans to pay off their mortgages, suddenly finds itself out of work and with a vastly devalued life-savings. Which means there is little surplus wealth to build a social security system. In the medium-time outlook, people will need to depend on having more male children to work and provide for their retirement. Which means a dramatic end to the One-Child-policy. I have not touched on the fact that most of China's high-tech development has connections with Taiwan and a war would destroy that infrastructure. All this is assuming that the USA does not come to the aid of Taiwan. Which is not an assumption that the Chinese military makes. If the USA and China went to war, it would be a nuclear war from the very start. This is because the only way for China to defeat the US Navy is to use nuclear weapons. I'm sure the US Navy commanders understand this is how their Chinese counterparts think. In short, if China invades Taiwan, all the progress and future hopes of this nation would be dashed overnight. And the Chinese leadership knows this. The only people who seem to not understand this are Americans.
So, in the event of war, China loses one way or another. They know this. And yet, if Taiwan declares independence, they will definitely go to war.
Two questions come up: 1) Why is it so important for them that Taiwan does not declare independence? 2) Why threaten invasion? The answer to question #1 is complicated. But basically, from the standpoint of the CCP, if Taiwan declares independence, then they have a much more difficult time keeping "stability" in Tibet, in Xinjiang, and in Yunan…and who knows…in Hong Kong and Guangdong and Shanghai. Turn this around for a second. If California - a place that has a different culture from the rest of the USA - declared itself independent from the USA, what would the central governement do? If Washington did nothing, would not Texas follow? Another point... CCP for many years have said that Taiwan is part of China. For many years they have threatened military action if Taiwan declares independence. If they suddenly dropped this, they fear they will have no credibility. Without credibility, you have no power.
So the answer to question 2 is simple. They threaten invasion to make it known that they are serious. Imagine... a Taiwanese leader – possibly in order to stoke the fires of Taiwanese nationalism for his election purposes – to run a on pro-independence platform. And such a leader might say that China really won't invade because the cost would be too high. Note that by gaining "independance", they gain only a name - it does not affect them nor China materially in any way.
In the past, the USA pursued a policy of neither confirm nor deny. We say that China's capital is Beijing, not Taibei. Yet we say that if there is war, we take Taiwan's side. Up till Bush, we would not say if we really would go to war (because that may give Taiwan enough security to declare independence), nor would we say we would not go to war (because that may embolden the Chinese military). The plan was to keep at this strategy until sometime in the far future, when China is much more self-confident and can drop its claim to rule over Taiwan. But Bush has not followed the policy. He has stated he supports Taiwan. And hence, the Chinese government has been much more threatening.
Long story short, you are mistaken in your belief that China really wants Taiwan back. What they want is stability and security. The less secure they are, the less progress they will make towards democracy and towards building a more varied, vibrant civil society. You are talking about a country that has been victimized by foreign imperialism, domestic warlords, and totalitariam popular movements over the last 200 years. Their desire for security and stability is very valid, at least in their own minds.
…And now you would, however unintentionally, give China that very same excuse…..
I give no one excuses. But I find it important to understand "How the World Works". To understand the what's going on, so that I can make informed opinions.
, "…democracy has a moral obligation to protect the interests of other democracies." "Again, I repeat- the inability to do everything is no excuse for the failure to do anything.".
These are your statements that I whole-heartedly agree with.