I just want to say that the phrase "...reason to believe to be sure that..." doesn't make any sense at all.

Now, I'll admit, there are some in the peak-oil brigade who enjoy the apocalyptic nature of the discussion, and enjoy contemplating the end of everything as we reap the bitter consequences of population-overshoot.

But I'm not one of them. And most of us are not. We aren't any more happy about the prospect of the end of oil than the average schmoe would be (if they could comprehend it, which most cannot)..

I think it would be peachy if we had enough oil for the next 100 years. Really. I LIKE my affluent life, and I like having a big, vibrant city close by to enjoy. I take no pleasure in contemplating the consequences of overshoot.

But there are some problems that attend the notion that we have plenty of oil on into the indefinite future. Assuming you believe that (I don't, but it's not surprising a right-wing capitalist tool like the WSJ would like to believe it), consider that global warming is a reality (those who deny it really are deluded, I think, by this point), and if we burn up as much petroleum-based substances as will be needed to fuel a globe with a population of 10 or 15 billion (which is what it will be without energy limits), we're gonna turn the planet into Venus.

Second, we'll probably run out of arable land before we run out of oil, and so run out of food, plentiful nitrogen fertilizers or not.

So, we have a number of other limits to growth staring us in the face in the not-too-distant future.

There are too many humans on this planet. As Reg Morrison so artfully put it, we're now a "plague species" and we will, at some point, suffer the fate of all plague species. Die-off.

However, it'll likely happen sooner than later, because fantasies about two trillion in recoverable reserves are just that. Fantasies. I wish I could believe that. Really. Most of us out here wish we could believe that. But hard numbers say otherwise. Exxon can lie all it wants. Eventually the lies will be exposed...only long after everyone forgot Exxon made them.

Also, our actions on the geopolitical stage suggest otherwise. If we thought there was plenty of oil left, would we be frying up the entire Middle East? Even for Israel alone? I think not.

Nah. This has all been predicted. Predicted many years ago. Go to www.dieoff.org It's all right there.

The "undulating plateau" of oil production will continue for some time. With little peaks and valleys. But, short of a first-world depression in the medium term, you will never see $25-barrel oil again. The price will recede, and rise, but the general trend will be up. And up. And up.

Buy your oil funds now, they're at historically low valuations. You won't be sorry.

If Peak Oil is a crock, then it is only a crock for the time being. What your 8th grade teacher said about oil is true: non-renewable, limited. 2 trillion? Good, that means 2tera/90mega = 60 years of oil left, when using it at a clip of 90 million barrels per day. Then what? Some fabulous whiz-bang Jetsons wonder waiting in the wings? At the 30 year mark, we'd better have something like fusion ready and mass-producable. No sweat? Bull shit!

Capitalism, rationalism, empiricism have all conspired to turn common sense on its head. Instead of them having to prove highly risky policies (believing the markets will always provide whiz-bang miracles, not taking resource limits very seriously, etc.), they force us common sensers to prove 100% that a very probable thing will indeed happen; otherwise, the sacred cow of endless growth and personal profits cannot be touched. Great....

Even if there is indeed 2 tera barrels just for the taking, that still leaves us only 60 years! And what have we done in the past 60 years (since WWII)? Turned ourselves into a plague of free market locusts on this once perfect planet! Today's BMW runs on the same stuff the Model Ts ran on, i.e., no real technology progress IMHO. Just smoke and mirrors, which of course, won't get the job done. Call me when whiz-bang really delivers something.

Worrying about whether peak oil is today or tomorrow is somebody else's worry, not mine. Clear is that it will obviously come--and we're not doing jack shit about it! Very, very obviously, growth-only capitalism must go. At some point, the whiz-bang last-minute saviors will fail, and the capitalist crap-shoot will end. Face the old horse today, rather than have its severed head land in your lap tomorrow!!!