i think this game's going to be a lot more defense-oriented than what you're predicting king. pittsburgh has a world-class defense, which as you rightly point out will neutralize the cards' running game and force warner to be other-worldly. if the offense gets reduced to warner-to-fitzgerald, they may break off a few lucky scores, but they're not going to throw up 30-some points.

Meanwhile, the Cards' defense has quietly improved, and the Steelers' offense has been quietly awful. I look for "Ben" to toss a few up for grabs as he scrambles around like a high school quarterback with happy feet, killing drives and keeping the score down.

But the reason I'm taking the Steelers is simple: it's just the way these things have been going lately. In just about every sport we've seen a "cinderella" team reach the finals -- Rockies in 07, Rays in 08, Cavs 07, Penguins 08 -- against a clearly superior team. People rushed to talk themselves into picking the underdog, against all empirical evidence. Usually it boils down to wishful thinking -- not wanting to see the higher payroll, "dynasty"-type team win, or wanting to believe in the horatio alger story of the underdog.

The once exception to this, of course, was the giants last year; but in my mind, that doesn't count. Taking away wins and losses, by the time of the Superbowl, the pats and giants were pretty evenly matched. the pats had stopped dominating teams towards the end of the season, while the giants had begun beating people up on defense, discovered a fearsome running game, and found a way to make eli look more like his brother and less like tim couch. aside from warner-to-fitzgerald, i see nothing the cards are doing that's above league average.

so -- steelers 21-17.