Your pick of a Twins win in 11 seems about right. That's in line with the kind of baseball the Twins play, run hard, throw hard, work for every run. It's also the kind of thing that would make Guillen's head explode, once and for all, which can only be a good thing.

"Luck and timing play too big a role in single games or short series for predictions to be anything more than a silly pastime."

I'd say the same statement applies to predicting division winners.

I see that not one of the 50 "experts" picked the Rays, White Sox or Twins. Did these teams have fluke seasons? Tampa yes (or was it?), but Chicago and Minnesota still have a lot of players from recent division winners. Maybe, all 50 of you are reading and listening to the same chatter that it becomes conventional wisdom - the ESPN Versailles sports media.

Your assertion that it is easier to predict (or say intelligent things about!) division winners compared to one playoff game or a short playoff series is questionable.

Mboehm:

I'm not sure that Tampa had a fluky season -- a lot of people had them pulling into 3rd in the AL East, behind the Sox and the Yankees. They did beat a lot of expectations, and the Yanks were considerably worse than expected, but it's not like the Pirates became an unstoppable 120-win juggernaut or something.

As for the White Sox and the Twins, it's not so much that they were picked to be bad -- I think most people realized they'd be at least decent -- but the Tigers were expected to be the class of the division, if not the league, with a mammoth offense and good-enough pitching. That ... didn't happen. But it was a defensible pick.

Note that the winds are out of the northwest at about 10-15 today, gusting to 25. Winds out of the northwest are dead out to center field at already homer-favorable US Celluar Field. This has to be more favorable to the White Sox, who depend on the home run for their offense more than any other team in the game this year. And it doesn't particularly help the Twins, who have a lot more slap hitters who probably aren't going to be able to take advantage of a favorable wind as much.

There is a reason the White Sox dominated the season series at the Cell, which is favorable to the White Sox power offense, and the Twins dominated at the more spacious and artificially turfed Metrodome, which is very favorable to a lower power, line drives and bloopers offense with speedy guys running all over the place, and quite unfavorable to a slower team.

Also notable that the White Sox have a lefthander starting, which should slow the running game some, though Danks is nowhere near a Mark Buehrle/Andy Pettitte at shutting down the running game all on his own. And no one really knows what to expect out of him on short rest either.

What does the regular season mean in baseball? The Twins and White Sox have the same regular season records. Instead of a playoff game why not look to see who had the better record head to head. After all, they played each other 18 times during the season! The Twins won this "series" 10-8.

If MLB insists on having this extra game then why not at least give the home field advantage to the team that had the better head to head record? Instead it's decided by a coin flip. The fuckin' All-Star game, an exhibition game that decides home field advantage for the World Series, has more meaning than 18 regular season games? Absurd.

Look on the bright side -- you beat out one of the two football players on the list.

The White Sox need to win this. So they can eventually play the Cubs in the World Series. I need a new TV and am looking forward to a plasma. I can grab two of those and still run from the cops. The old tube was a bitch to get home during the Bulls riots. It got a little scatched up when I running through the dark alleys. I almost had to use it as a weapon.

And if Obama wins in November, well, maybe I'll get some new cell phones. Those iPhones sure look nice.

And a bag of socks. I could definately use a bag of socks for the winter.

I didn't see it, but you don't think the Bengals conspired to THROW the game?

Dropped 3rd strike in the 11th? I like it.

I didn't see the game either, but it's not hard for me to imagine detroit's bullpen sucking real bad without trying to.

seismicyawn What does the regular season mean in baseball? The Twins and White Sox have the same regular season records. Instead of a playoff game why not look to see who had the better record head to head.

Because this is more exciting? The fans like it? Someone said the game sold out in 20 minutes.

Also, the tradition was established before the relatively recent U.S. sports phenomenon of deciding playoff spots by things like head-to-head record, and I for one am glad of it. In fact I think it's more like you for one are not. You are the first person I have ever heard complain about the existence of a playoff game, as opposed to deciding something by comparing results beyond won-lost records.

Partly cloudy and clearing, 20% chance of rain, Mid-50s F, Wind 9 MPH from the NW

King,

I can live with the playoff game to decide this. To me what is truly absurd is that home field advantage was decided on a coin flip and not the 18 games played. The Twins "beat" the Sox 10-8 and that should have counted for something... like home field advantage. At least make the season series between two teams mean something for the one game playoff.

Regardless, I think the Ray's will beat either one of these teams.

You could have tied for first in picking division winners simply by going by payroll. Both of the Chicago teams and the two LA teams had the highest payrolls in their divisions.

“The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet.” -- Damon Runyon