Letters to the Editor
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...just one more thing,
regarding age, brittleness, and depth. Yes, the Braves have an aging rotation, but they have a young starting lineup that can produce as many runs as any team in the NL and a better manager in Cox than the Mets have in Randolph--and let's not forget the Braves' crafty front office. The Mets are formidable, but to say they will win the East in a walk is a little over the top, rpackrat--(insert snide comment about last year's collapse here).
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Well
We've whittled him down to one liners.....One word next, then one letter......
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Adam Dunn
"Adam Dunn kills the Reds. He is a stupid donkey who sucks. He just flat out sucks."
Uh, April Fools, right?
Last year, the average ML left fielder was good for a .276/.349/.461 line. Dunn went .264/.386/.554 with 40 HR, 27 doubles, and 101 walks. That's well above average. Hell, in his worst year in the bigs (2006), Dunn was still an above-average major league left fielder.
No, he's not a good defender. That's why he's in left, home to such other fielding luminaries as Moises Alou, Ryan Braun, and Manny Ramirez. But he more than makes up for his defense with his bat.
Adam Dunn gets on base, hits a ton, and plays almost every day. He's a very, very good player.
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Dodgers
I mentioned in a letter a few weeks ago that I think they're headed towards a division title. I think Torre is the rare manager who can be a difference maker without the x's and o's brilliance. He's something of a figurehead with power to me in that it's like the Dodgers brought in the Queen of England to manage but gave her actual authority to do something if things get out of hand. You might have individual players who are tempramental or disruptive, but when the Queen is nearby you're on your best behavior and want to please her majesty. I think Torre carries that weight with him to L.A. and that turns a team of individuals into a cohesive unit.
Torre himself has mentioned that he has to remind himself he's not managing in the American League because of the pitcher batting in the 9th spot. Usually that would be a bad sign if a manager has to remind himself which league he manages, but again, I think his mere presence and gravitas does make the difference with this team and finally makes them a credible contender for dare I say it, the World Series title.
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Great preview
But let me say, as a lifelong Giants fan, I'm actually more optimistic about this season than any season in the last five years. Could they lose 100 games? They could lose 110, and 120's not out of reach, if Lincecum gets hurt. Will they struggle to score runs? Bengie Molina is their clean-up hitter, and should be. No, they'll be plenty terrible. But this needed to happen. They have some talent in the low minors--had a good draft and man-child Angel Villalona ready to explode onto the scene in 2013. Meanwhile, they need to be bad enough to force themselves to rebuild. Randy Winn, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel have some value, and some contending team is going to have injuries where they'll need a veteran right fielder, or second baseman or shortstop. Maybe even--I'm reaching here--Barry Zito will pitch well and the Red Sox or Yankees will decide they need a lefty starter and we'll flush that contract out of the system. Well, probably not. But I even like the strategy of playing guys like Winn. Will he help the Giants win? Of course not. But he'll look more valuable when someone needs a lefty pinch-hitter, and we might cash him in for a C prospect.
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@Dodgers
I respect Mr. Torre as a former player, he was pretty good--but if one examines his career as a major league manager, well, "gravitas" is not the word I would use. He was awful with the Mets, while he did help bring the Braves to the playoffs in his first season there, he traded Brett Butler (trading a guy named (B)rett Butler from a team in Atlanta?) for Lynn Barker--of course, Butler would only move on to become the best leadoff hitter in the National League and Barker would become...I don't remember except it had nothing to do with baseball. He also did the unforgivable thing of getting rid of Phil Neikro, the first in a series of Atlanta pitchers who would win the 300th game in an unfamiliar uniform. Torre wouldn't come near the playoffs again with the Braves or the Cardinals when he took over the healm there--he was sub-500 after five seasons. Considering how he limped out of New York, with all the talent on that roster (which he had nothing to do with arranging), I can't imagine how anyone would be awed with Mr. Torre. The Dodgers will learn soon enough how much a empty shirt Torre is.
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Some replies
haplo53 It's the national media pecking order, same as it's ever been - the Braves, fashionable; the Mets, gauche.
Those poor, maligned New York teams. Just can't get any respect in the national media.
Red Leg Harang is still one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the majors, Arroyo is solid and should be better than last year. Fogg is a stable veteran and then between Cueto and Volquez you have two guys who each could find them selves as the teams ace by 2009.
Well, good luck with the pitching. I hope you're right because I'd love to see the apoplexy in many quarters over Baker succeeding.
Agreed on Harang, but why should Arroyo be better than last year? Fogg may be a stable veteran, but he's not a very good pitcher. Volquez has command issues. Cueto has thrown 83 IP above A-ball. I think Cueto's going to be something, Volquez I'm not so sure about, but either way, it's asking a lot of two kids who haven't done much or anything yet. Them being aces in '09, even if that happens, won't help them in '08.
laynegt The potshot at Oliver Perez was lazy: the guy was 3.56/1.31 in 29 starts last year...that's not inconsistent, that's a pretty good big league pitcher.
You're absolutely right. That is, assuming the universe was created in 2007.
Oliver Perez ERA by year:
2002: 3.50
2003: 5.47
2004: 2.98
2005: 5.85
2006: 6.55
2007: 3.56
Tamburlaine Seriously, though, I wonder whether the Giants would be competitive even in a AAA division.
Seriously, they'd dominate. The majors are really, really good. Crazy good. You know what Omar Vizquel would hit at AAA?
debaser Actually, what is your take on the effect of the baseball manager? Is it a glorified role, or do you think they can significantly improve a team?
I think they have almost no effect on the strategic moves thing. I think they do have an effect in terms of being an effective manager of an organization, creating the right atmosphere, putting people in position to do their job well, allocation of resources, etc. All the stuff that makes for a good manager at any number of businesses. I think the effect in terms of games won and lost is probably fairly small, though.
Just my theory of it. I got nothing to back all that up. I know Bill James and others have been trying to study the effect of managers on wins and losses in recent years. I haven't gotten interested enough to look into what they're finding.
rpackrat I'm a big fan of yours,
Thank you.
but your analysis of the east was way off. As others have already noted, the Braves are at least as old and brittle as the Mets, but their front line talent is not nearly as good as the Mets'.
OK. You've convinced me. Actually, you didn't need to convince me. I already agreed. And I picked the Braves anyway. Baseball's a funny game.
The "inconsistent" Oliver Perez posted an ERA+ of 120 last season, had a 2.2:1 K:BB ratio, and struck out 8.85 batters per 9 IP.
Hey, look, Oliver Perez fan club: He had a good year last year. You can just look at that and say that's who he is, or you can look at his whole career and say that that's who he is. You do the former, I'll do the latter, and we'll see. I'm not saying Oliver Perez is going to revert to being lousy this year. I'm saying he's been inconsistent. So he might revert. Might not. I'd take him for my fourth starter. I'd take him for my third. But I'd have my fingers crossed for sure.
rampart However, I winced when I read that what's-his-face at ESPN picked them to win the World Series
Are we supposed to know who this means? Kenny Mayne? Tom Jackson? I'm guessing John Kruk, but I'm curious.
Mikes Pace Adam Dunn kills the Reds. He is a stupid donkey who sucks. He just flat out sucks. And he strikes out just about every at bat.
Yeah, except for the 40 times that he hit home runs last year, or the 101 he walked, or any of the 38.6 percent of the time he got on base, which was more often than any other Red except Scott Hatteberg and, in 67 games, Jeff Keppinger. He led the team and was 10th in the league in adjusted OPS-plus. He's one year older than Hamilton and Brandon Phillips, and he's had five and a half solid big-league seasons, out of six and a half. Hamilton's had a half a one. Phillips has had two.
I'm just guessing here that you love Brandon Phillips, as well you should, he's really good. But Phillips made 504 outs last year. Dunn made 402. Dunn had 80 fewer plate appearances. So if Dunn had gone 0-for-80 with no walks in some extra playing time, he'd have made the same number of outs as Phillips. While hitting 40 home runs.
Ryan Howard struck out 32 more times than Dunn last year in 16 more plate appearances. He suck too?
Dunn does suck in LF. He produces about two runs every three games with the bat. He probably gives back a couple runs a month with his glove. He is easily the Reds' best position player and has been for years. Pretty good trade-off. You know who has some slick fielders playing LF? Giants.