Letters to the Editor
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Rust theory redux
Notorious W.E.S. wrote:
Won 5 of 6, scoring 51 runs up to July 8th for an average of almost 9 a game........They next played on July 13th and scored 10 runs.
So much for the layoff theory
Not at all. Pronounced rust that really impacts performance is a negative exponential function of performance ratio p and time t in days. Assorted tests disclose once t = 6 days (or more) the p-factor really discloses layoff effects that are substantial. For example, on base averages of 0.400 before the layoff will plummet to less than 50% of their value. ERAs meanwhile will be less affected for certain pitchers, but explode for others (as we saw for Francis).
By this paradigm a five day layoff, while seemingly large, is in fact not insuperable. Particularly as performance indices during the regular season are not as critical as in post-season. Hence, it isn't remarkable the Rockies had five day layoff and came back. But comparing that to 6 days (as for the Tigers last year) or 8 days (Rockies this year) in the post season, is like comparing chalk and cheese.
The test of a hypothesis is in the accuracy of its predictions. My prediction based on the rust hypothesis, is that the Rockies will recover their timing slowly, but each iteration will only increase the players' aggregate p factor slowly and not enough to overcome the Bosox 'p'.
Thus, the Rockies have a chance to go five games with the Bosox, but no more. Interestingly, and this takes nada from rust theory, the biggest chance for the Rockies to win will be tomorrow night when the Bosox p will likely be lower or equal than the Rusty Rockies on account of: i) adapting to a new stadium at higher alt. much colder temps., and ii) NO dh - your pitchers have to hit.
However, by the 2nd games at Coors the Bosox will have seen their learning curve catch up so to speak, so the equalizer effect (rust vs. 'newness') is now vamanos.
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Do The Rockies Have batting Cages?
Or did they play scrabble for 8 days?
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Toxic Hell
I know product placement is nothing new. But last nights sound clip of Royce Clayton was an absolute shame. The saddest part was that Ellsbury had no clue that Clayton was schilling for e. coli bell. The rest of the series will be listened to on radio and muted on Fox.
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mhomyak...
Jimenez was a little wild, but he'd only allowed 1 hit through 4 innings and still had nasty stuff. If anything I thought Hurdle pulled him a little quickly, although he's had Jimenez on a very short leash since he was rushed up to the majors in August, and particularly the last couple of weeks of the season. Affeldt was pulled after one batter because he was brought in strictly to face the lefty Drew; they wanted a righthander facing Varitek. Lefty relief pitchers are often used to get one lefty hitter out -- the term LOOGY (lefthanded one-out guy) has even entered the vernacular.
It's the kind of thing you more often do in the 7th or 8th than the 5th, because you can burn through your bullpen pretty fast, but Hurdle's been managing that way ever since they had their backs to the wall in mid-September, and generally it's worked out. As it did last night -- hell, if the Rockies can allow 2 runs per game every night, they'll still win this Series.
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Enough with the rust theory
Whatever your beliefs about the effect of the layoff, we really do have to consider it 'the hand Colorado was dealt'. The Rox swept the D-Backs. The Sox went to 7 with Cleveland, finishing on Sunday. The EARLIEST Game 1 could have been played was Tuesday instead of Wednesday. So a 7 day layoff instead of 8. Nothing to be done about it.
So enough already droogoy. Maybe the Rockies should have tanked a game or two to keep their timing.
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You Make The Call
A.)Not at all. Pronounced rust that really impacts performance is a negative exponential function of performance ratio p and time t in days. Assorted tests disclose once t = 6 days (or more) the p-factor really discloses layoff effects that are substantial. For example, on base averages of 0.400 before the layoff will plummet to less than 50% of their value. ERAs meanwhile will be less affected for certain pitchers, but explode for others (as we saw for Francis).
By this paradigm a five day layoff, while seemingly large, is in fact not insuperable. Particularly as performance indices during the regular season are not as critical as in post-season. Hence, it isn't remarkable the Rockies had five day layoff and came back. But comparing that to 6 days (as for the Tigers last year) or 8 days (Rockies this year) in the post season, is like comparing chalk and cheese.
or
B.) Beckett and Schilling just repeated what they have done a bunch of times to a bunch of teams in their post season careers.
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More Hurdle
One of the joys of watching the Rockies for the last month has been Hurdle adopting this pedal-to-the-metal managing style -- win today, and let tomorrow take care of itself; get through this key inning, and let the rest of the game take care of itself. Around Sept. 15 he basically said, like Jason Robards in All The President's Men, "F*** it, let's stand by the boys." It requires an astonishing degree of trust in some very inexperienced guys. It'll probably end up biting him in the butt, but it's been a hell of a lot of fun to watch guys like Seth Smith and Jeff Baker, with very few major league at bats, come through in key spots. Ryan Speier closed an extra-inning win vs. Arizona in the LCS; it was his first major league save.
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Essentially correct
So enough already droogoy. Maybe the Rockies should have tanked a game or two to keep their timing.
Well, it sounds whacked & perverse, but you're essentially correct. Consider: if they had allowed themselves to deliberately "flub" 3 games they'd have majorly reduced the layoff time, actually cut it in half (to 4 days). This is below the 5 day cut off for the p-factor exponential decay hypothesis.
So, they could have had a high probability of putting it to the Bosox and extending their streak.
The Rocks dilemma was in going for the W in the NLCS series when they could take it - nothing off them for that- but this wil cost them the golden goal, objective at the end of the rainbow.