Letters to the Editor
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You almost convinced me . . .
Cy Young won 511 games. I think you'll agree that's out of reach, because we're not about to return to a two-man or three-man rotation.
There will be more 300 game winners if current trends reverse, managers no longer pay attention to pitch counts, and are willing to consign the current corps of setup men, 7th innning men, 8th inning men, and closers, to unemployment.
There will be another 300 game winner if and ONLY if all that happens. Let's say the next three hundred winner can get there on only 400 decisions. This would make his record 300 - 100, easily breaking Whitey Ford's record for best winning percentage by a pitcher with more than 200 wins.
Over the past 30 years, only 6 pitchers have had as many as 400 DECISIONS, let alone victories. (Glavine, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Jack Morris and Dennis Martinez.) (See the search engine at www.baseballmusings.com in the entry on Glavine.) So under current practice, there will be only about 6 such pitchers every 28 years. Is there any chance that one of these will also win 300? I suppose. But he would have to be the most durable and dominating pitcher in the history of baseball.
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Here's one that won't happen again...
Of 18,000+ men ever to have played major league baseball, the leader in home runs also shows up first alphabetically.
Enjoy it while it lasts.
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Actually that's the second in alphabetical order
Hopefully you enjoyed your fill of the home run leader being first alphabetically before last year, because pitcher David Aardsma is actually tied (with many, many others) for last in career home runs with zero.
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On the flip side
People are way to confident that Alex Rodriguez will get past Bonds. Even if Bonds retired with 756, A-Rod would still have 256 left to go. To catch up, he would need to average 40 home runs a year for more than six years. That may not sound too hard, until you consider that the guy is already 32. So he needs not only avoid serious injuries, but keep banging home runs at a superstar level into his late thirties. Without being on the juice (or at least not getting caught).
Following King's logic, sooner or later someone will get past Bonds, but it probably won't be A-Rod.
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Glavine
Had his own kind of steroids...........All those years in Atlanta the umps protected little Tommy. Anything up to 3 or 4 inches off the outside corner was the outside corner.
It really was laughable.
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He Didn't Have The Stuff
But he was a cerebral pitcher. And the umps played right along.
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I'm sure there's an asterisk somewhere
Let's ban him. Anyone who succeeds has something to hide.
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Greg Maddux
Was a fraud as well for the same reason, but not quite to the extent of Glavine. Smoltz was by far the best pitcher of the famous Braves staff.
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The Braves-Indians World Series
The one that the Braves won, was damn near criminal. That monster Cleveland offense was just shut down by the ball-strike calling.
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Another Thing
As Bonds is savaged.
I was reviewing Boston Red Sox history. It's something to behold. All of the great all-time Red Sox hitters enjoyed massive advantages in Fenway. Poking doubles off the Green monster etc.....We see 40,50,60 point career differentials with these guys in home and road batting. With Boggs it was nearly 100 points.
No, Bonds would not have had the same stats without steroids. And all the Red Sox sluggers would not have had nearly their career numbers without Fenway.
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Todd Helton
Of Colorado. Is he possibly a hall of famer some day? Career Home-.367 batting, .464 on base, .664 slugging, 1.128 OPS............road--.293, .393, .500, .893.
That's ballpark performance enhancing.
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Variables
There is a constant churning of environmental factors which affect the likelihood of another 300-game winner.
Five-man rotations make it less likely.
Improved surgical techniques make it more likely.
Hitters parks make it less likely.
The money being paid to age-40+ pitchers makes it more likely.
Pitch counts (in the majors) makes it less likely.
Inning counts (in the minors) make it more likely.
Taken as a group, it certainly looks like "less likely" carries the day. But never again?
Here are the years in which the last 10 pitchers who surpassed the total won #300:
1961 - Spahn
1963 - Wynn
1982 - Perry
1983 - Carlton
1985 - Niekro, Seaver
1986 - Sutton
2003 - Clemens
2004 - Maddux
2007 - Glavine
In the years between Wynn and Perry, only Robin Roberts and Juan Marichal had even a ghost of a chance. Surely the death of the 300-game winner was foretold. Suddenly it was happening every year (and that doesn't include exact contemporaries Jenkins, Kaat, Palmer, and John). Another long dry spell, now another spate of pitchers in the last few years.
It'll probably be another 15 years before it happens again, if not longer. But Bonderman and Sabathia in particular might have what it takes. No chance it happens again after them, though. I mean, it would have to be someone I've never heard of!
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You Want To Find The Real Hitters
Find the guys who do it the same home and road. Bonds is almost identical home-road career.
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The 300/300 club
Sabathia would be unique - the first 300 pounder to win 300 games.
Nahgunnahappen.
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Why should this number mean somthing?
300 game winner. Who cares? Pitchers' wins and losses mean little to me as a baseball fan. Watch Aaron Harang pitch 9 innings of 1-run baseball, and take a no decision. Watch that game, in its entirety, and come back and tell me if W's are what pitching is all about. And conversely, how many games did Glavine win in Atlanta with Fred McGriff and Chipper and Deion when he didn't desevere it? Things to think about.
Also, who watched Bury Bonds last night? What an embarassment. He is the personification of at least 3 deadly sins.
At least they're rubbing Bud Selig's face it in, like the old incontinent dog he is.
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350 will be the new 300
Mr. Kaufman is dead on. There will be a slew of 300 game winners in the next 30 years. And just like 500 dongs isn't the guaranteed ticked to Cooperstown it used to be, 300 wins will loose it's luster real quick in the coming years.
Two things resulted when baseball expanded recently. There was a boom in offense because so many minor league mules that would never have fondled a MLB rosin bag were being inserted into a big league rotation (Edwin Jackson). And at the same time, more would be role players (Mark DaRosa) are everyday players.
The result is the top tier swatters and hurlers both benefit from facing inferior opponents more often. In the end, the stars' stats will be padded. Which is why it's easy to see how Mussina can win another 12 games a year for 5 years - especially if he ends up in the NL. Winning 12 games a year for an above average pitcher is nothing - hell, Jamie Moyer won 20+ games twice since turning 39. So to say we won't see more 300 games winners makes a jive ass turkey gobble.