Letters to the Editor
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Ping Pong
Mondale.
The Eastern Conference needed Oden, whatever, I don't even think JO could have done anything about it.
But, fortunately, it's easy to imagine Bill Simmons hanging out in Vegas with people who don't like him too much, getting turned on by a picture of Tom Brady, listening to "WOW, Now that's what I call music 1985" and complaining about not getting Oden.
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Wait a minute...
So which pick is going to tank, Oden or Durant? Since we're choosing between being a millionaire or a billionaire. I guess it will the third pick that is sadly mediocre.
But, you're right, there will be someone great to pick at 4, 5, or 6. Only nobody knows who that is.
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NBA Third World
The NBA has a Third World that teams fall into and cannot get out. They get lottery picks every year, but they don’t pull out of the spiral unless a superstar lands in their lap, by luck or mistake. The Nuggets were stuck in this whirlpool until Carmelo Anthony fell into their lap, which was only because the Pistons took Milicic. If the Pistons had taken ‘Melo, the Nuggets would still be stuck in the undertow, along with the Celtics and Hawks and the rest of the perennial basket cases.
The lottery does not help this situation, as it helps funnel future superstars away from the franchises that most need them. The Third World franchises, however, are ultimately to blame. It takes a lot of bad decisions to get top draft picks year after year but never get better.
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Tyson Chandler
Tyson Chandler doesn't quite belong on that awful list. Age 24, 9.5ppg, 12.4rpg, and still developing.
Maybe not a great top 3 pick but also not an awful one.
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Aldridge v Thomas
King, don't beat yourself up on that prediction just yet. Thomas played very limited minutes this year -- as you noted, somewhat of a project -- but he showed some stuff in that playoffs that suggests that he could indeed develop into something special. And Aldridge definitely looks good, but I'd say the jury is still out on both.
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Lucky Portland
Another big-money too young future superstar that they can train for that day when he's finally coming into his own, when he will take an even bigger free agent deal from some other team that didn't have to pay him for or suffer through his youthful mistakes.
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Beyond Oden and Durant...
This year's second tier of draftees is absolutely loaded with guys that have much more high-level basketball experience than Oden and Durant. There's a huge upside to those two amazingly talented freshmen, but I could see guys with more experience (especially tournament experience) like Florida's Horford or Brewer, or G-town's Hibbert stepping in and making bigger contributions early on because of their experience and the lower level of expectations on them. Not that I'd take Horford over Durant or Oden (which still wouldn't be like taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush or Vince Young), but that I'd be very happy getting a player who has been tested repeatedly in the NCAAs and who won't face tremendous media scrutiny as a number 3 or 4. And as King's column makes clear - it's really hard to know who is really going to be successful in the NBA. Any of these guys who have fans worked up right now, whether because their team will or won't get to draft him, could end up an NBA mediocrity. It's also a near-certainty that someone who's not on the radar right now will end up making big contributions later on.
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Number One Pick Failure
Long before the Trailblazers were bought by Hate Radio owner Paul Allen and I actually rooted for them, they had a Number One pick in the draft, and they picked LaRue Martin.
If you look at it long-term, the Sam Bowie pick wasn't quite as horrible as it looks--they did trade him (plus a first round pick) to the Nets for Buck Williams. You have to wonder about the Nets thinking on that one.
Speaking of Number One Pick Flops, King, I'm surprised you didn't mention Joe Barry Carroll, picked by Golden State in 1980.
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Boston
Boston wouldn't have been happy with either of the top two picks anyway. This is Boston - last city to integrate their ball team, still the most white NBA franchise.
So they'll be happy with Jianlian. Or maybe they'll pass and draft Spencer Hawes instead, he'll fit right in.
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Back in 1996,
some long-time NBA scouts admitted that, when Hakeem Olajawon was a senior in college, they projected him to be a no-more-than-average NBA center. Most figured he'd block a bunch of shots, grab double figures in rebounds and score only occasionally. Even the best just can't always tell.
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One way to kill a lunch hour...
Great article King,
In hindsight it sure looks like every year a large number of teams totally flub their draft picks...outside the few Cheney-esque "slam dunk" first picks every few years (Lebron comes to mind, so does Duncan and Iverson) it really looks like a crap shoot. I wonder how often teams with the first pick in a non-slam dunk year go with the safe pick instead of the "project" in order to avoid looking stupid a few years down the road?
But it got me thinking, how often does a team actually draft anyone of value from the second round? So I just wasted about half an hour looking it up and came up with my top three since 2000:
2001 - Gilbert Arenas
2002 - Carlos Boozer
2000 - Michael Redd
other than that...man, there's alot of offal there...you'd think with the sheer number of college teams and international leagues that the number of quality 2nd round picks would be higher. What's going on here? Is it that most teams take fliers on projects in the 2nd round? Any thoughts?
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Draft haters aka Celtics fans
God, there is just not a more annoying form of sports fan than the New Englander who somehow feels that life is unfair and that his/her team got gypped when they don't win the championship/lottery? I consider the Celts drop to 5 payback for a)consistently terrible management b) awful coaching c)2 decades of Auerbach manipulating every rule written and unwritten to his advantage d) Bill Simmons non-stop blabbering about his halycon Larry Legend days of yore. Please ESPN, assign him to cover the WNBA or maybe the Atlanta Thrashers.
fyi to BS, memo from the Heartland...LL ain't exactly tearing up the NBA with his moves - who missed the playoffs and has 0/zero/bupkis draft picks to show for it. My only hope is maybe LL is still smart enough to outfox his old partner in green Ainge to give up his #5 for O'Neal. I am 100% sure that Pacers fans would give anything (even JO) to see Mike Conley Jr throw on the #1 shirt and kiss rap-sheet artist Tinsley's arse goodbye.
Anyway, more Bristol-based BS about why are we won't see Oden and Durant cuz they are left coasters now. hmmm...do kobe and the gang suffer from lack of exposure due to 3 hour time zone difference?
Oden and Durant will get to develop outside the harsh glare of a major media outlet and time will tell if that turns them into a Duncan or Garnett.