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Anyone who has played basketball for any amount of time can tell you this: you don't have to be looking at somebody to intentionally hit them. Especially in an under-basket scrum. It seems beyond obvious that Henderson was trying to send a message, and while I'm confident he didn't want to actually break Tyler's nose, he did want to cause pain. He came clear across the court to do so.
The video speaks for itself - and while a few sportswriters continue to say it wasn't intentional, I think 85% of the fans - from both UNC and Duke - believe their eyes rather than post-mortem analysis.