The question, above, was whether Buster's Panel o' Experts-leading 110-50 record was the result of luck on the coin flips, or "skill," in picking all favorites of six-plus points. (He flips a coin when the spread is less than six.)

The answer: Looks like both.

I don't have the favorites from Weeks 1 and 2, when Buster went 19-13, but I've kept track of the ones he's picked since Week 3. From Week 3 through Week 11, his record was 91-37. Picking six-plus-points favorites, he was 38-6, an .864 winning percentage. Yowza. But, as you can see, that doesn't account for him being 60 games over .500. In the coinflip games, he went 53-31, a .631 winning percentage. So his coin is outperforming probability by 11 games.

If you're betting on the Panel o' Experts, you might want to keep that in mind before betting on Buster.

Also keep this in mind: At one point, again starting with Week 3, he was 17-0, and he was also 25-1 in picking big favorites. Since then, 13-5. Still good, but not almost perfect. It seems counterintuitive to me that "the odds" do a worse job of picking winners as the season goes on and we know more about teams, but that's been the case this year at least.

And now we've got rumors that a Mariucci firing is imminent.

I don't buy any notion that the problems of the Lions begin and end with Mooch, but I certainly can't defend him.

I can yell a different name at the TV on Sundays. Something with less syllables this time, 'K Fords? Especially if yelling "ORLOVSKY!" at the TV is in my future.

I do think the Lions would be better with someone who understood that handing off to Kevin Jones is their only offensive attack worthy of the name. But better would be like 8-8, 9-7.

Hey King - you wrote up my beatpaths.com system a couple weeks ago. I figured out a predictions checker. So far this season we're at 98-62. Hey, it's better than Ron Jaworski!

Is there a precedence for having neither team in caps? Maybe this would hvae been the week to introduce the "No winner" pick.

Sure there is. It's called a typo. There seems to be a few every week, and sometimes it's that I forget to capitalize a winner. Some people have suggested that a good WTH pick would be to predict a tie, in any game. If I hit that one -- wow. There's been one tie in the last, I forget, eight years or something?

Heya King,

In re the Saints v. Jets:

Is there a precedence for having neither team in caps? Maybe this would hvae been the week to introduce the "No winner" pick.

Have fun cooking turkey. I'm feeling a little queezy myself.

King

As a Jets fan, I respectfully disagree with you about the importance of this game in light of the Bush sweepstakes (has there ever been a bigger draft can't miss ?). This is the toughest game for us to lose (maybe Buffalo in week 17 also). GO SAINTS ! (and also 49ers,Houston)

How much has Buster benefitted by luck?

Good question, and I've been meaning to research it. I forgot to keep track of which teams were picked as favorites, as opposed to coinflip picks, for a couple of the weeks, so I have to find the old odds if I can.

The Yahoo Users' record is 106-54. This represents the opinion of the mob, which hews pretty closely to always picking the favorite. (That's what makes the favorite the favorite.) Buster is four games better than that. So I suspect what's happening is that Buster's batting about .500 with his coin, and picking big favorites yields slightly better results than just picking favorites.

But I don't know that and will research soon.

I think this is an apt question, given that Buster leads the Panel o' Experts: How much has Buster benefitted by luck?

For instance, if he has gotten 70% of his coin-flip games correct, he's in first place by random chance, while without it, he would be in the bottom half of the standings. On the other hand, if he has only gotten 50% of his coin-flip games correct... well, that's something that ANY prognosticator could do with his eyes closed.

So, King, which is it?

They're Tryptophan-tastic!