This poll is more proof that Republicans like quitters and whiners. Really not shocking at all.

With all the republicans left in this country. Are they down to double digits yet?

Ponder this scenario: Sarah runs in 2012 and finishes a strong second in the GOP primaries. At the convention, she demands a spot on the ticket, is rebuffed, and storms out of the convention to form a "Conservative Christian Party."

If the above scenario plays out, it would doom the GOP to minority status for 2-3 election cycles; yet it may be a necessary step for the party to recover.

Yeah, she's big with the Stuffed-monkey-on-a-stick crowd.

Here's the thing. As the republican party shrinks, the base becomes more and more important.

As such, if she wants to win the nomination, getting that base locked up tight is of the utmost importance, and if getting a bunch of stuffed shirts to rally on about how inaqequate, foolish, and weak she is helps, well then maybe this is a good thing to do.

Let's face it, no one looks as strong as Obama right now, and he's likely going win again in 2012, and no one wants to be the Republican Dukakis. But let's think for a moment, if Palin get's that base behind her, if other republicans let her have the spot for the P.R. (first woman to head a major party), then her job is half done. Sure she's considered a laughing stock now, but if she wins the party nod, well maybe she's a little more acceptable then.

If the bloom is off Obama's rose by then thanks in part to unwinnable wars, and an obstructionist congress (on both sides) well then Maybe Palin isn't as long a shot as she seems.

The bottom line, anything she does right now, isn't going to matter in the 2012 election, but if it continues her good feeling among the base, it could go a long way to getting her the nomination. After that, the clock resets and it's a new game, and who knows, maybe she's not a stupid and inept as we think.

MAYBE

Probably most of them. They really are in their own fantasy land.

I wish their fantasies didn't tend to screw up the real world for the rest of us.

If it's really Obama vs Palin in 2012 I just know the right wing will be even more rabid than in 2008.

I think some Republicans envision some sort of glorious street fight with the "evil Liberals" but I don't think they'll find it.

Unfortunately, in my opinion anyway, President Obama and the Democrats in Congress haven't really given liberals anything to fight for other than boring old sanity. How much excitement can you really work up over that?

Really, with the media obsession with Michael Jackson and Sarah Palin, I am left to wonder if there is nothing else newsworthy you could discuss. Of course there is. So enough with your fucking obsession with Sarah Palin. Get the over it. Really. It is now beyond the point of pathetic.

Also, you need a class in basic statistics. The same time there are more Republicans that are clinging to Palin, there are fewer people that actually identify as Republicans. So, in essence, your entire post is a bunch of drivel that has no bearing whatsoever on the mood of the country.

In total, the GOP has lost roughly a quarter of its base over the past five years.

Source:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1207/republican-party-identification-slips-nationwide-pennsylvania-specter-switch

Also see:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/parsing-the-polls/21-percent.html

To win primaries, Palin will have to debate Romney, Huckadoodle, Pawlenty, who knows who all -- people who've been boning up on their facts and figures and practicing debating for years -- over and over again. She got away with filibustering her one-off debate with Biden, but in a primary season, sooner or later, she'd need to answer some questions and make some coherent factual statements, not just utter empty generalities and strung-together buzzwords. The question on my mind is, how will that play out in the GOP primaries?

It's scary that even the most rabid of Republican apologists still support this woman. I guess it's easier to blame the media, the "biased" Couric interview, and "sexism" than their own party's incompetence.

I consider myself fairly conservative fiscally speaking, but Palin the pin-up girl for the Republican party? The GOP may have met its doom this past election.

But I like her better walking away, too.

1. The effect may be, to some extent, part of the continued decline of GOP identification. Over the last 6 months or so, the ranks of GOP voters are way down, leaving only the most hard core. Of course, this would work to Palin's advantage in a primary, since those are the people likely to vote, whereas in the general it hurst.

2. The question, as posed, isn't all that useful since it doesn't ask her relative ranking to other republicans.

Rasmussen has a trial heat poll up that goes 25% Romney, 24% Palin. 22% Huckabee, 14% Gingrich among Republicans (this is from 7/6). Not clear if they had asked this previously or how it compared, but given the zero profile that Romney has had lately, and relatively low Huck profile, this probably isn't great news for Palin. Of course, this is also 2 years out, so a few things could change between now and then.

I think Palin actually has a very, very strong chance of winning in 2012.

The 2012 election will come down to one thing: the economy. If the economy is better on November 2nd, 2011 than it is today then Obama definitively wins. If the economy is worse on November 2nd, 2011 than it is today, then the advantage is to the Republican nominee (and at the moment, Palin is by far the strongest of the potential Republican nominees). This might seem like a pretty big "IF" but with Paul Krugman saying that without a second, bigger stimulus bill we will have a "lost decade" of economic decline ... then it is a distinct possibility. Keep in mind that while Obama's approval rating is ~60%, it is considerably lower on the issue of the stimulus/bailout ... so even winning a second stimulus is going to be a struggle.

Yes, the Republican party is in disarray because a pretty big chunk of Republicans are angry at their party. However, the Gallup polls show that the majority of those who are dissatisfied with their party think it is too liberal right now. Any consolidation of the party will have to involve a right-ward move. That bodes well for Palin.

Don't ignore the "personality"/identity political capital that Palin has. Obama is very sophisticated, urbane, highly educated, etc. Not exactly the qualities you want when people are turning against the bankers, economists, lawyers, lobbyists, etc. that got us into this hole or when class tension is on the rise. Palin represents the outsider who doesn't play ball with the Washington insiders/old boys network like Obama does. That could be a big strength in 2012. Like I said, it all depends on how the economy goes.