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if you have the stomach and patience to scroll way down the comments of joan's post about this, to get to the twisted and tortured logic of readerx2 and his ilk, you'll find that NOTHING palin does could ever be construed by her base as a misstep. if she were caught in a hotel room with two dead hookers and a bag of coke, they would still find a way to blame it on the liberal media and hail it as a savvy political move.
but you're right, these are not the people she has to convince going forward to 2012. i find it hard to believe that anyone could reasonably decide to begin campaigning now, six months into obama's first term, for the next election, but palin's ego and obliviousness to decorum are just large enough to make that explanation plausible. the timing and sheer oddness of the decision do invite one to imagine an impending scandal, but that seems like wishful thinking to me.
i just don't see how she manages to overcome the negative connotations of this move, and the ridicule it invites -- especially from barracudas like romney and gingrich! -- during a prolonged campaign.