No one yet has mentioned that AZ went blue in 96 for Clinton. It is not impossible! I'm in Flagstaff and it is usually a more democrat leaning area - and definitely seems to be going that way this time based on the signs and conversations I've had. We are in a huge AZ district (District 1) that also includes Yavapai County that tends to be very conservative. I have not yet heard anything from that area.

There are Obama signs in Pearce's area. There would be one more Obama sign (and one less McCain one) had a very Democratic older couple not moved out of a house just a few away from my parents last year. They were replaced by a clearly conservative one, if their signs are any indication.

Still, I've seen a number of Obama signs around and I know some Obama supporters who live in the area. I work with one, and she reported to me that an evangelical, Republican neighbor of hers is ashamed of what her party has done, and is planning to vote for Obama.

Obama signs in Russell Pearce country? Wow.

and from what they tell me, the idea of AZ being a close and competitive state is not a fantasy. McCain will almost certainly still win it, but perhaps his margin will only be in the low single digits. For Obama, given what looks to be shaping up around the rest of the country, that would be a huge moral victory (and it would be a body blow to McCain.) Conventional wisdom is that presidential candidates shouldn't even have to break a sweat in their home states--they typically win by pretty wide margins (Gore losing TN in 2000 was the exception that proves the rule). Hell, Mondale won Minnesota in 1984 by a decent margin, and aside from DC that was ALL he won. For AZ to even look worrisome or competitive to McCain right now is a huge red flag of major trouble, no matter how the Republicans try to ignore it or spin it.

My parents' house is in the heart of a highly conservative state district (District 5, which has sent the bigot Russell Pearce to the state legislature year after year). Their street has several Obama signs, and only a couple people have McCain signs up,

Obama should battle McCain to a draw in Maricopa County. He'll easily best him in the south. It's just a question of what happens up north.

i live in phoenix and i'd say that maybe not this election, but next election az will finally go blue. this year the house delegation will turn blue, with 5 dems and 3 reps probably going to dc. mccain's senate seat is up for graps in 2010 and there are a number of popular and talented dems in the hunt for that.

as a further sign of the times, my father, who is a rep and a huge supporter of mccain, even donated several hundred to the campaign last spring and again in the summer, is now voting obama. he's afraid of palin.

its a phenomenon known as an obamanon

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/az/arizona_mccain_vs_obama-570.html

Of course, the sad part is that he's doing better in Texas and Alabama than he is in his own home state. While Obama's unlikely to get AZ's 10 electoral votes, I don't think it's unfair to say it's not good for McCain that his home turf is looking like a battleground this close to the election.

According to statistical theory, whoever has the higher number is probably in the lead. Being within the margin of error only means that it doesn't satisfy the 95% confidence criteria everyone uses as a default. So in that Rasmussen poll where McCain is up by 5 points, and 5 points is within the margin of error, we cannot be 95% confident that McCain is leading. However, if the margin of error were recomputed, maybe we could be 93% confident that McCain is leading.

There's a lot of peril in treating within/outside the margin of error as an on/off switch, and it can lead to major self delusion. And nobody needs self delusion.

Great link! Maybe I'll be able to sleep through the night tonight...

I can't experience too much schadenfreude over this since the whole reason Florida's election mess ended up allowing the Supreme Court to hand Bush the 2000 election was that Gore couldn't even carry his home state. If he had, Florida would have been a moot point. So much as I'd like to do a nyah nyah at McCain, it feels just a little too mean.

Just a little anecdotal information to chew on...

My lifelong Republican husband, who only recently started questioning the decisions of the Bush administration, put up an Obama/Biden sign last night in our yard. Registered republicans in AZ that support Obama, like ourselves, are a growing population that shouldn't be overlooked.

LOL!

http://www.bgladd.com/Obama/MartinsvilleMS4Obama.jpg

Tucson looks to be very solid for Obama. I don't know about the rest of the state - maybe people can weigh in from other parts of the state with their opinions.

There was a big Democratic rally in Green Valley last weekend which is kind of surprising since it's a large retirement area that tends to go Republican. I imagine there are a lot of people there who, like my mother, lost a lot of money in the market. Mom used to be a big John McCain fan and now she can't stand to look at him.

I was talking to a friend of mine who is the political reporter for the local alternative newsweekly over the weekend and he told me that Arizona still looks like it will go for McCain. However, we also discussed McCain's slip in the polls along with the down ticket races that appear to be favoring Democrats and the fact that early voting in Pima county has shattered previous records. None of that is good news for McCain.

The idea that Arizona could be in play strikes me as just a bit too optimistic. Sort of like the 2004 Salon article ("Don't it Make a Red State Blue?") that wistfully described Arizona as wavering.

But, oh, wouldn't it be fun to watch McCain suddenly canceling appearances in Pennsylvania and in Florida to run home and play defense!