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According to statistical theory, whoever has the higher number is probably in the lead. Being within the margin of error only means that it doesn't satisfy the 95% confidence criteria everyone uses as a default. So in that Rasmussen poll where McCain is up by 5 points, and 5 points is within the margin of error, we cannot be 95% confident that McCain is leading. However, if the margin of error were recomputed, maybe we could be 93% confident that McCain is leading.
There's a lot of peril in treating within/outside the margin of error as an on/off switch, and it can lead to major self delusion. And nobody needs self delusion.
