Is it really over? I mean the media seems to be telling us that unless something drastic happen this thing is in the bag. i wonder if any of this is just the liberal illuminati hyping things up and buffing up Obama's lead? Maybe, maybe not but it sure doesn't seem like McCain needs to pull that rabit out of his hat now or never.

I'm still scared to death the Republicans are going to pull something out of their hat in terms of fraud, or that the polls are wrong etc.

Here's one small sign of hope. In my toss-up state (West Virginia, leaning slightly to McCain) my fundamentalist Christian Republican brother can't stand either McCain or Obama and also dislikes Palin for her lack of knowledge and (I suspect) because she is a woman. He is writing in Huckabee as are, he says, many of his friends. If this is true for many people, its as good as Nader in 2000. As long as people don't push the McCain button it helps Obama.

Pew's poll, while fun for us Dems, is really an outlier. A look at all the polls, which is what realclearpolitics.com, pollster.com, 538.com and others do, provides a much better understanding of what voters might be thinking. All of those sites have shown a more or less steady level of support for the two candidates the last few weeks.

I'm not sure if much can really be learned form cherry-picking outliers like this.

I have to wonder how they are so far out of whack with the rest. It could be the registered voter/likely voter distinction. At this point, most other polls are using likely voter models for inclusion and weighting, whereas pew is not. It is hard to say what the right call is here. Nobody is forthcoming with what their models look like, and frankly, this year all bets are off about who is likely to turnout. There is concern, however, that some of these Obama voters won't show.

OTOH, given that the methodology is consistent, this is a promising development for the Obama campaign. At least the trend is in the right direction (and it seems to be borne out in other polls as well)

There's also a good chance many of these folks will stay the hell home on election day. After all, people who are this disinterested in what's going on in their world/country won't drag their asses to the polls if they have something better to do or if the weather's crappy.

It's a bit worrying to see that while McCain's support has dropped, Obama's has remained stable. It generally means that some McCain supporters are becoming more undecided, but not that they'll support Obama. It's still possible (and not exactly unlikely) that when next week rolls around, the majority of them will trend right back towards McCain. This happens, and all of a sudden the race is closer again, and things like low voter turnout (especially among new registrations) and the Bradley come into effect again.

It's still looking like an Obama victory, but not necessarily by a margin I'd like.

I harbor hopes that many people who do not want to vote for a black man, who would never admit to voting for a black man, will in the privacy of the voting booth vote for Obama. A testament to Bush's presidency and McCain's ugly ugly hate-filled campaign.

So Obama's numbers aren't changing, but McCain's are going down... Hmmmmmm.

That's a lot of uncommitted for this late in a high profile campaign....

Makes me nervous....

After debate #3, I flipped over to FOX just to see what they were saying. It was great fun to watch their post-debate round-table acknowledge that McCain delivered his best debate performance, but that it wasn't enough to match the cool and calm of Obama.

Now, what would really be fun is if FOX simply reported made-up results that showed McCain narrowly winning. Enough people would by FOX's reporting, completely convinced that the Liberal Media cooked the results, that you would have some serious rioting in the streets.

...does the rest of the sample represent undecideds, third party voters, margin of error, all of the above?

Keep fighting! Do NOT relax until the votes are counted.

No election party for me. I'm going to get a good night's sleep for a change, hopefully.

I might make an exception, and watch the returns on Fox News on election night, that should be pretty entertaining.

Mr. Obama's team has done an excellent job. Thats all.