And I just saw on David Gregory's show polls that showed McCain ahead in VA!?! Oh right, the tool was using polls 2 weeks old to help his make believe narrative that McCain was making a comeback.

Check the link in my sig to see.

...have all the trollz gobe these days...

A few weeks ago they were absolutely sure that we were going to get our asses handed to us.

Oh well don't let the door hit you in the ass trollz! Make sure you stock up on prozac for November 5th... YOU ARE GOING TO NEED IT!

If Obama's lead in Colorado in the CNN poll is 51-47, that's 4 points. If the margin of error is 3.5 percentage points, that means that Obama's lead is slightly outside the margin of error.

Also, Obama's lead in FL in the CNN poll is 51-46, or 5 points. You said that was within the margin of error. Really? The poll has a margin or error of 5 or more percentage points? Sounds like a pretty shitty and unreliable poll to me. Why are we paying any attention?

I don't think CNN's polling is considered very good, but I'd have to research more. But even if we split hairs over the amount of his lead in various states, the fact remains that the pollsters are showing him with sizable leads in a broad swath of key battleground states. That's the most important finding of all.

I'm fortunate enough to live on a blue island in Florida but even here I've seen a sudden flouishing of MacCain and McCain-Palin and even "Sarah!" bumper stickers lately. I don't know if the Repubs are mounting a counteroffensive, or just handing out stickers like crazy, or if it's just my perception.

I notice that down at the Gulf of Mexico a lot of the beachfront weekend homes are sporting McCain signs. But the onwers often live in Alabama or Georgia. My lady commented that it's probably the owners dreading having to pay taxes on their million-dollar getaways.

You're right, David Gregory is a total tool and douchebag. His show on MSNBC might as well be renamed "The Race to Salvage the McCain Campaign and Paint Obama as a Struggling Candidate, all Evidence to the Contrary be Damned." Most of the time I only tune in thinking we might see him get down and dirty in a three-way with his other favorite tools John Harwood and Michael Smerconish. The boner he gets for them is obvious even through the teevee.

Why MSNBC employs such a putz is beyond me. Same goes for that other douchebag Joe Scarborough--what, FOX couldn't find a desirable time slot for him?

You should probably check your own math before lecturing others. The margin of error applies to individual percentages -- e.g., if 51% of voters say they're going to vote for Obama and the m.o.e. is 3%, that means the true percentage who are planning to vote for him may be as low as 48% or as high as 54% (within a 95% confidence interval, etc.) Similarly, if 47% say they're planning to vote for McCain in the same poll, the true numbers for McCain may be as high as 50% or as low as 44%. If the confidence interval limits overlap at all -- as they clearly do in this (made-up) example -- then yes, the race is a "statistical tie."

I'm not a big believer that polls can be trusted in this election, especially individual ones, but I have been keeping an eye on this site:

http://www.colleyrankings.com/election2008/

They average all the known recent polls, state by state, and then show the electoral score based on those averages. Just in the last couple days, they not only flipped Virginia for Obama, but also Ohio and Florida. Back in June, Obama peaked at a high of 352 electoral votes, then spent the summer and early fall creeping steadily downward, bottoming out at 273, which is basically a dead heat. Since then, he's been climbing steadily, with the jump today taking him back up to 338.

I've seen this movie before, and been crushed when Gore and Kerry lost, but as much as I will allow myself to be optimistic, this makes me that way. I wish we could have the damn election now!

ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CN, DE, NJ, NY, MD, DC, VA, NC, FL, PA, OH, IL, WI, MN, IA, MO, NM, CO, CA, OR, WA, MT, HI.

Landslide, thanks to Grampa McSame and Failin' Palin.

Why Confuse us tommorow

When you can Confuse us today?

You're right, I stand corrected. Point taken. Mea culpa.

Thanks for making the point without resorting to vitriol. That's becoming an increasingly rare quality on Salon.

Have a good day.

I know this question has been asked by others before.

Is there any realistic scenario for a McCain win if he looses Florida?

I just don't see it, especially given that Obama is near certain to hold all the Kerry states.

Of course a LOT can happen in three weeks we must remain focused. Turnout is key, don't let any of friends say 'it looks like an Obama blowout so I'm not going to bother'. Make SURE everybody you know votes.

And don't forget, down ticket races matter, so even if you are in a safe state you can still make certain the Dems control congress and have more influence at the local level (the place where future national leaders come from). For example, here in Oregon we're a 'safe' Obama state but we still need to take out Senator Steve Smith.

Get out and VOTE.

Spot on. I believe Obama will win all of those states. I just wish I could add my red-as-hell state to the list.

But even here in Christian fundamental la-la land, the Obama vote is going to be strong, very strong. Although it probably won't be my state, don't be surprised if Obama picks up a state people haven't really considered.

Election night, I dare not get my hopes up to soon. But it is looking to be oh, so sweet....