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Two things. First, many political scientists -- I happen to be one -- are convinced that there will be a minimal Bradley effect, if any, this cycle. But, second, this isn't because racism has disappeared. It is because people feel that they can claim other reasons for voting against Obama, and are able to do so without shame. When McCain and Palin engage in the specific kind of smear they are engaging in -- We don't really know Obama, Obama is touchy when we question him about his past (that is, when we goad him and then pretend he is overdefensive, Obama's middle name, Obama hangs with terrorists -- all of these and other smear moves that take advantage of those who are still uneasy about his race to raise doubts about him. The racism is for those receiving the message often unconscious, but it is a deliberate and provocative strategy of the McCain crew, and it is what Schaller should be highlighting, not the instrumental prescience of those creeps.
The upshot is that the polls may be more accurate, or even minimizing of, Obama's support. But the electronic media, and perhaps Salon too, have an interest in the horserace in order to generate more drama, at least. Look at the dismal reporting on the debates: by a much wider margin than in any recent elections, the voters have clearly indicated Obama and Biden the winners of those debates. And there has been little reporting of it, even though the CBS NYT poll indicated that the debates helped them move up significantly, not just the meltdown.
