I find it disturbing that McCain still polls close to Obama despite all that has happened in the last eight years, McCain's continuous gaffs on foreign policy, and his flip-flopping on almost every issue.

Presumably this is meant to send a message to Republicans. I can't see relying on Karl Rove for unbiased advice on elections.

Its easy to figure out. Watch this:

McCain's 40% = 28% Bushies + 12% of people who think Obama is a Muslim (ie secret terrorist)

That's where it comes from. It will never get lower and may get higher.

Obamas 46-47% = mixture of Democrats, progressives, some early attention indies and a spattering of republicans.

14-16% or so are still not yet paying attention. Many of them are independents. They are yet undecided.

This week was probably the first time they started paying attention. Almost being forced to by the non-stop Obama coverage. (This is why this trip and the imagery was brilliant. Obama is "different" so people need to see him looking like he could be president)

It won;t be really until AFTER the conventions (closer to the first debate) that those 14-16% will start paying close attention.

How do I know? I'm an independent who (heretofore) never really paid much attention until the debates.

but only a moron would think Obama was qualified to be President.

Congratulations Alex.

Stick with the geek: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

boring

To think that Karl Rove's maps have any actual informational value -- as opposed to political value -- seems naive.

I don't know how or why but somehow this will work to the semi-senile, semi-alive codger.

How is 272 coasting when 270 are needed to win? How is 272 coasting when it's a decline from a previous projection of 296?

Pretty much any piece of "information" coming from anywhere in the general neighborhood of Karl Rove should be viewed purely in terms of "what is his strategy in putting out this piece of propaganda" even if it seems to benefit Obama.

This November the Quiet Multitude (millions, actually) will turn off the Ballgames, Survivalist Gameshows & Soap Operas for the first time & give a "Hard Thought" to who will give Less Belly Troubles to their Gut Instincts about which Leaver ought be pulled.

Most .... if not all ... will parallel the decision with one of far lesser import ...

For example, .... Joe Blow & Sally Schmuck of Podunk, USA will suddenly be forced to decide which bloke seems most accomplished in piloting the Boeing 747 Jumbo Jet that they their buckled into as it taxis down the Runway of Fate.

To Joe & Sally the decision will be between a doddering old barnacle of the doddering American Airlines fleet, or ---- some green untested bush pilot whose Glittering Teeth on the local Cessna TV commercial promises .... "Hope".

That's the REAL decision facing the beading sweat of Joe & Sally & their fellow passengers as the Jet Engines of the 747 begin to Whistle & Schreech & Roar ----

Ladies & Gentlemen it is "Fear" and Fear alone that decides elections ---

Jesus People fear abortionists -- Salonistas fear Karl Rove -- and Marines in Panjwin fear the thought of a Cessna pilot becoming their Commander in Chief.

THE FOLLOWING CLEVER OBSERVATION WAS POSTED EARLIER THIS A.M. BY (I'D IMAGINE) A HILLARY FAN)

"It was mesmerising to hear Barack giving Berliners a history lesson on Berlin (post-l948). These revelations must have astounded the Germans, who obviously knew nothing about the Berlin airlift or any of the other historic events that affected their city and country. He also told them how wonderful they are. They cheered in agreement."

Permalink Friday, July 25, 2008 06:30 AM

I wouldn't put any more faith in Karl Rove's maps than in Karl Rove's math. He's playing head games, and there's no point in paying any attention to him at all.

It seems to me at this point that the race is likely to be close, even though it seems incredible that it should be, given the history of the outgoing administration. But whether I'm right or wrong about that, the worst thing that Obama supporters could do now is to get overconfident.

Rove is one of the Rught's head trolls, and worrying about him or today's poll numbers is a little like watching the market daily to track your 401(k). The party of the fat cats will not give up its catbird seat without amazing desparation. Don't forget the neocons break the law to get what they want, then hide behind walls of legal obfuscation.

We lull ourselves to sleep dismissing the Righties as stupid. which they're not; they're dishonorable, avaricious and arrogant, and they're good at it. Look at the billions they've lifted from the treasury - they admit it, and will never have to pay anything back.

By October, the debate will have evolved, and the candidate who best brings it at crunch time will win. Right now, the best we can say is that Obama has home court advantage throughout the campaign.

Why is anybody still even reading/listening to anything Rove says?

Can we not just let this little troll of a man fade into obscurity?

When Rove looks at the map which shows Dems beating the Repubs, he should blame himself, the neocons, Bush, and Ralph Reed.

Rove and Reed masterminded the plan in the mid 1990s for the Republican party to abandon the conservatives and white southerners in order to "broaden the base".

The philosophy of the Republican party and conservatives in all sections of the country was jettisoned in order for the party to capture liberal minorities like blacks and hispanics.

So now the Republicans have a party with no philosophy, chasing liberal demographics which will vote Democratic. McCain was Rove-Reed's most perfect candidate, meant to appeal to independents, blacks, and the friends of illegal immigrants. But those groups are trending heavily democratic, in part because McCain is trying to re-sell foreign and military policies which ceased to apply a generation or so ago, and which the public rejects.

Look upon your work, Rove, and despair . . . .

...not that it's been revealed just how inadequate McCain is to Obama, is to broadcast to republicans "the Dems are gonna win, the Dems are gonna win" loud and early, in hopes of somehow turning the tide. Me, I'm loving this.