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I wouldn't put any more faith in Karl Rove's maps than in Karl Rove's math. He's playing head games, and there's no point in paying any attention to him at all.
It seems to me at this point that the race is likely to be close, even though it seems incredible that it should be, given the history of the outgoing administration. But whether I'm right or wrong about that, the worst thing that Obama supporters could do now is to get overconfident.