McShame has barraged those states with highly negative, highly inaccurate ads. While Obama answers the ads with press releases, no one reads those. Obama needs to pound those states with the message that the presidency requires someone that can work a full week and can grasp fundamentals like how electricity works, neither of which the codger can do.

Obama sure doesn't have much traction.

Right now, it's only the diehards that are following things.

The commited Dems and Repubs and 3rd party types. The "undecided" people just pay attention to the conventional wisdom... Obama is a flip flopping centrist, McCain is a maverick who loves the troops.

Early on in the primaries, Guiliani "polled" well among Republicans nationwide, except for when it came to actual voting.

I'm hoping that the press does start paying more attention to the maverick. The more people actually see him, the more the brash facade crumbles. The more women actually notice his voting record, the more they see he's in line with Bush.

Aww c'mon Alex,

Your headline is just a bit hyperbolic no? He's still leading in 3 of 4 but not but as much?

Perhaps you should've written "Reason for concern in battleground states." instead?

"...and of course that you shouldn't go celebrating Obama's lead in national polls just yet."

Oh, now, Alex, WHY would we possibly do that?

It's not like anyone getting their news here at Salon would have the remotest idea that Obama is doing well.

After all, here at Salon, we get only a steady stream of negative articles and "concern trolling" about Obama, not to mention foreign columnists telling us why McCain would make a better president for OUR country.

If it were left up to you and Joan, we'd all just stay home, depressed, give up, and wait for the 2012 election, when, no doubt, Hillary will have her resurrection, sweep it all up, and finally get the rightful coronation you all seem to feel she so deserves.

I still can't wait for the Salon headlines when Obama wins... I expect it will be "McCain's narrow (x%) loss bodes poorly for Obama presidency

Feh...

Don't count your chickens before they are hatched. That Obama's guys and gals are even talking about a transition team is enough for the gods to shift his fortunes...

... when these polls might mean anything.

to suggest that "Team Obama" thinks the race is over, no? Looks like he's still campaigning to me.

I've seen actually the opposite in polls showing Obama leading in some swing states. In a recent polls among hispanics: Obama 66% McCain 25 %.

Of course no one should be looking at polls a this date. The general election not yet started. Wait until after the convention.

No one in the Obama campaign is taking victory for granted.

Even in states like CA volunteers are taking GOTV seriously. We don't just want a win. We want a BIG win! Iivee met people who have never been involved in a campaign before volunteering for Obama.

Another "PUMA" trolling on a left-of-center website!

Listen, PUMA dumbass, the real ad money hasn't been spent yet.

Besides, your golden OLD boy Grampy McSame has had a horrible week of looking stupid and out of touch and OLD that hasn't percolated through the polls.

Face it-- you've lost. All the way around. Maybe it's time to look at Bob Barr....

Gee and the German press is estmating a 100,000 pepole will be shwing up to hear Obama speak.

McCAin has speent a lot more money on his bad advertising than Obama. In June & July Obama has been saving his money to spend on when it counts. In fact Obama will be advertising during the Olympics. Smart move.

That's the only way to interpret this. this isn't even a contest of Right versus Left, it's a contest between pragmatic solutions and cluelessness.

Quinnipiac has a good record, from what I've seen. So I'm sure Obama's team isn't ignoring this data, either on the ground or on the air.

But it seems worth pointing out two longer-range views here, one by history and another by geography:

This analysis from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball shows that, barring any great change in McCain's fortunes (by which I don't mean Cindy's), Obama's going to win, based both on current polling data and historical trends, and that calling it a "close election" is a bit misleading:

http://tinyurl.com/6jp5xj

And electoral-vote.com shows through poll averages that, if the election were held today, Obama would get at least 292 electoral votes...22 more than are needed to win.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

I won't breathe easy until inauguration day, but I'm not panicked yet.

For all that dough he's spent....

Obama sure doesn't have much traction.

It's tough to work against the Republican Slime Machine, which really hasn't even gotten started yet.

Despite that, Obama is having to overcome such notions as these:

• He wants to change the national anthem to "I'd Like to Teach the World to Sing."

• He's a Muslim.

• He won't recite the Pledge of Allegiance

• He has relatives that are crack addicts and gay porn actors.

• His name isn't really Barack Obama; he just changed it to that to make his name sound "more Muslim."

And so on.

McCain doesn't know Shia from Sunni and thinks that Iraq and Pakistan share a border and yet the press won't write a single negative word about him. He applied for a license to marry his trophy wife while he was still married to, and living with, his first wife. Ever see anything about that on CNN?

Obama has the tougher path. Traction will be difficult.

Because it means that the Obama campaign will not rest, or coast, or gloat but will press forward toward the election. Too big a lead in July leads to unwarranted complacency. Obama should be campaigning as hard on November 1 as he is on August 1.

let john talk. let john run. watch john lose.

The people is those states are too dumb to vote their own best interests. It doesn't matter because obama will win without them.