Letters to the Editor
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"yes, I am basing my reasoning on the polls, even 6 months before general election."
May be we should forget about the primaries, and just take a poll instead then?
And, last time I checked, the USA consisted more than the two states of Ohio and Florida.
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@libertyson
Thanks, that's the kind of analysis I was hoping for. And thanks to "Uncle Fester" for the links.
However: I see you listed North Dakota, Virginia, Nevada, and Ohio as necessary for Obama to get to 278-260. That's not one, but four very difficult states for Obama to win. I would add New Hampshire to the mix also. Out of them, Ohio is the crucial one, that's the one I was asking about.
For Hillary, it is necessary to get Pennsylvania and either Ohio or Florida - two out of three, not all three. And for her Ohio is actually doable.
I looked at electoral-vote.com and it is not very reassuring. According to it, Obama and McCain are tied, with the tie being in Indiana. While Hillary is winning rather easily.
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sugarman
I know it's hilariously ironic, a real fizzy kind of tonic. Take a gulp and take a dizzy spin, but remember Obama is in this, and he's in this to win.
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@ on_second_thought
First, polls this far out are meaningless. There is simply no way to tell were this race will be late October.
If Republicans are hoping the Wright issue will be their ticket against Obama, it may have peaked too early. I live in Illinois and a local reporter is asking farmers in a cafe in rural Indiana about Obama and Wright. The first guy they asked literally rolled his eyes. Price of fuel, land foreclosures; that's what these guys wanted to talk about.
When the Democratic race is settled, McCain's numbers will come down. Right now, McCain needs to be beating both Democrats by double digits. Because once the Obama ad money starts hitting McCain, he's going to drop.
Your assumption that Hillary easily carries PA or Ohio presumes a high black turnout for her in those states. That's a pretty big assumption. Again, if Kerry would have simply held onto to Gore's black support in Ohio he'd be running for reelection. Kerry won PA by about 2%. Again, no Democrat wins PA without high black turnout in Philly and liberals in the burbs. It's the reason Rendell is the Governor. So again, PA is a big assumption for Hillary. Democrats don't win chasing the "Nascar Dad" vote. And to make matters worse, Hillary's negatives are highest with that group.
White voters in PA will do what they did to Kerry; vote for him in the primary while voting for down ticket, more conservative Dems and then vote Republican in the general.
The possible hole in your argument that Hillary has a better chance in OH and PA is that these white working class folks who voted for her in the primary will vote for her in the general. They haven't voted Democratic in the last 20+ years, I don't know why anyone would expect them to start doing so now.
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That's where the guessimating comes in.
[I] looked at electoral-vote.com and it is not very reassuring. According to it, Obama and McCain are tied, with the tie being in Indiana. While Hillary is winning rather easily.
538 currently has a toss up between Obama and McCain while McCain beats Hillary. As a prior poster mentioned earlier, the election is not being held today. The most interesting thing for me is that the battleground states for 2008 aren't necessarily the same as in 2004.
A few talking heads (Chuck Todd for one?) have posited a 10% bounce for the eventual democratic nominee. John "100 years" McCain keeps making gaffes, the most latest is openly admitting our militiary adventures in the mid east are all about the oil.
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This Wright thing reminds me of the Lewinsky stuff
Remember how Republicans salivated over this?
"Oh, wait until the American people hear about this. Clinton will be toast!!" The media and Sunday shows were all about Clinton's BJ. They simply counldn't understand how he could survive. But the American people didn't care. It was all about the economy. Right now, John McCain is getting a free ride. And a close primary race between two formidable campaigns are taking a toll on each other. But once the race is over, the vast majority of Democrats will rally to the standard bearer. McCain's number will drop. And Republicans and talking heads will wonder why the American people are more interested in jobs, inflation, energy costs, Iraq etc and aren't as interested in the nonsense they are spewing.
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Fair enough on second
I'll go with you on some of those. To me either Nevada or Virginia will be largely mitigated because, at this point given Obama's weaknesses (which aren't as large IMHO as others think) and what he'd need, either Jim Webb (D-VA), Tim Kaine, Mark Warner or Bill Richardson would probably be his V.P.
One of the reasons I think Webb would be such a good VP candidate is because I think he pretty much inoculates you against any military/guns/working class white voter attack. With him on the ticket, pretty much anyone becomes much more viable in Virginia and Pennsylvania. Nevada I think you could take. And Kansas, to me given his family's history there and his strong support from Sebelius, probably falls Democrat if he's the nominee even though it wasn't on that list.
The point is it's not as undoable as many are trying to make it out to be. He's simply not unelectable. Anyone who thinks any election is going to be a cakewalk is wrong. I also agree with you it's important to do this kind of analysis.
Also I stand corrected. Looked at the map and the site you had. You are right Hillary only needs 2 of the 3 (PA, FL, OH). I still don't think she can take Florida from McCain and I think she'd be hard-pressed in Ohio but you make some good points.
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republican machine hasn't started either
It's easy to discount the damage that the Wright controversy has caused, but if you talk to people who actually go to church, they do not buy that Obama somehow didn't know his pastor's views. He went there for 20 years! And once the republicans start to actually spin this, I don't see how Obama can counter this.
I think Gore actually lost Ohio, but he concentrated all his efforts on Florida. Kerry lost both. You have to win at least one, either Ohio or Florida, and I don't see how Obama will win either.
And yes, I'm assuming that Hillary will win Pennsylvania, just because it's so close to NY.