Letters to the Editor
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Great article!
Great article Steve! Your analysis is absolutely correct. In order for any democrat to win in Nov, it's time to start chewing up McCain.
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And the Vets...
Don't forget the tax-free disability collecting, filthy rich wannabe POTUS McCain is against the new GI bill. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama support this bill.
Now, who supports the troops?
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This is as good as it gets for McCain
If I were a McCain supporter, I'd be incredibly nervous that, despite the fact that the Democratic candidates are tearing into each other with everything they've got and largely ignoring their Republican rival, the best McCain seems to be able to do is poll even with either one of them.
What happens once the Democratic nomination is resolved, and the general election campaign begins in earnest? Eventually, some of the hard feelings between Obama and Hillary's supporters have to subside, which means you'll start to see a decline in the numbers of Hillary's former supporters who say that they'll vote for McCain over Obama in the general (or vice-versa).
Also, the reason that the Democratic primary has turned so petty and divisive is because there's not a hair's breadth of difference between Obama and Hillary's platforms. Once the Democratic candidate only has to worry about one opponent attacking from the right, they're free to unleash a barrage against McCain solely on the issues, and that doesn't even take into account all of the viable personal attacks against his flip-flopping, ties to lobbyists, support of failed Bush policies, infamous temper, advanced age, questionable health, etc.
I also have to wonder how McCain's stamina and bank account will hold up over a grueling months-long campaign, especially if it's run in accordance with the Howard Dean 50-state strategy, which should force McCain to spend more time and energy shoring up red states than he might ordinarily have to.
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And his promise to balance the budget
- Does this include the "Emergency Spending" costs for the war on Iraq?
- If elected POTUS will you continue to request war funds as "emegency" requests thereby keeping them "off the books?". If so, what is your justification?
- What is your plan to begin accounting for war defecits as part of the national debt? What is your justification?
- Will you try to expand Capital Gains taxes to cover IRA's and 401(k)'s?
All so much more interesting than flag pins and snipers.
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In the long run...
While I'd love a reason to be optimistic about some supposed McCain bubble, I am reminded of Keynes's famous saying, "in the long run, we'll all be dead." Yes, it may be true that someday McCain's bubble will pop. But the timing matters. If it doesn't pop before election day, it doesn't matter to me if it ever does. And I'm not optimistic about whether--whenever the opposition turns its attention to McCain--we will have time to pop it before November. We will have to contend with:
1) The core fanaticism of his supporters, including the press.
2) The vitriol sure to come from the other side.
3) McCain's gravity defying track record of remaining the "trustworthy, rogue, thoughtful, experienced maverick" regardless of his pandering, ideological, and indeed somewhat loony behavior.
Assuming that all it will take is public scrutiny for McCain's support to erode is like assuming that Abu Ghraib would force America into some profound self-analysis and political reckoning. It's pretty to think so, but I can't hold my breath.
From this perspective, I am firmly in the half-empty camp: McCain's solid numbers make me anxious and feisty.
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I can't wait
I can't wait for a McCain - Obama debate. Or even a McCain - Clinton debate. Imagine: a solid, well-informed, well-spoken politician against a doddering old fool. Oh man! Of course, you (plural) would likely refer me to Bush, George W. vs. Kerry / Gore, but I'd be willing to wager that even Clinton on a bad day is better than Kerry at this debating thing. As for Obama, I think he's going to wipe the floor with St. John the Senile.
Of course, this will have to be supplemented with a lot of ads about how incompetent McCain could be as a President, and you know, Obama here would win hands down if only because he's going to have mountains of cash to spend on such ads. Not only that, Obama can radiate that Kennedy-esque disdain for an awkward opponent, which (like it or not) we, the people, can appreciate in a candidate.
Call me naive, but I'm cautiously optimistic about this, no matter who gets nominated on the Democratic side.
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It's up to Hillary
I tend to agree that the extended primary process should be good for the Democrats, if both candidates were trying to outdo each other in attacking McCain and the Bush legacy and showing how the Clinton/Obama policy stances are very similar to each other but very different and far superior to McCain's. This would, due to the numbers, be Hillary essentially giving up on any chance of winning (as if it were really possible anyway at this point) but would do three things.... get Obama and Hillary to campaign on the ground in the remaining states, keep the media attention squarely on the Democrats' message but also on their attacks on McCain, and let them use those vast fundraising machines to spend in the primaries so they can spend a fortune essentially on the general election but have it count as money spent in the primaries, so Obama could even keep his pledge to accept federal matching funds if his opponent (McCain) does.
Heck, they could even demand decent debate moderators who would focus on issues and get them if worked together.
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This is an excellent argument for Gov. Dean's timeline...
Personally, I don't see why the supers need until July 1st, because even the May/June primary schedule (after the 6th) are a pretty thin lot. But if they'd like that much time to be courted, fine. If they'd like that much time to honestly make up their minds, fine. But no more. They'll have had 6 months since the Iowa Caucuses at that point, which is more than enough time even if you didn't realize this choice would be up to you until after Super Duper Mega Tsunami Powerball Tuesday. Hell, by that point, they'll have had almost 4 months since Texas and Ohio, and more than 2 months since Pennsylvania.
If they can't make up their mind or cut a deal by then, well, then, they really no longer have the best interest of the party at heart.
And to those who will inevitably say "relax, we used to have conventions that matter all the time," I would submit that those conventions tended to be in June or July, not the last week of August. The thing about this season, thanks to a) the rush to get this thing "over with" (and thus the creation of the aforementioned Large Tuesday, with the attendant leapfrogging by Iowa and New Hampshire) and b) the desire to both try to go last and not get ignored in favor of the Olympics, means that this "no man's land" from the time of the last few primaries until the convention is longer than most in memory while, perhaps ironically, the contest of the primaries seems like the longest ever as well. Can you imagine how boring this all would have been had Clinton won Iowa and NH, or if Obama had swept Super Tuesday?
Still, July 1st, Supers, that's the law. Fine if we let McPets.com get to then with his share price, but the bubble needs to pop before the dog days.