Letters to the Editor
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Lies
I say the poll was rigged. I say they asked questions to give them the results they wanted. I say they didn't ask an actually representative pool of people. There is far too much money in this being a close race for them to just report that McCain is losing badly.
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Definitely the second one
I can't help but feel McCain's numbers will plummet when he actually enters the general election and people start paying attention. I also suspect much of the support he will get will be luke warm at best which means his polling numbers will likely be better than the actually vote will be as people who pay lip service to supporting him may just not be motivated to actually cast a ballot.
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I'd go with the latter
That McCain isn't well ahead here says that it's more a matter of ignoring than coasting. Once Sen. McCain is no longer ignored, that is to say when the Democratic nominee is settled, numbers will move toward the Dem nominee.
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McCain should be AHEAD
I agree with the idea that McCain should be ahead right now. Any polls showing him even with them (and he has been somewhat even for some time now) don't scare me. Whomever gets the Democratic nomination is going to tear him to pieces. He should be afraid. Very afraid.
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Underlying issues
I think the underlying issues favor the Democrats. Facts favor the Democrats. Recent history favors the Democrats. We have 6 months to go, and 'facts' are going to catch up to McCain ... unless McCain 'Lite" wins the Democratic side. When the facts and the knowledge that 4 years of McCain is like 4 more years of Bush II, he will be in trouble.
So 'even' is not very pleasant for them. And polls are not that accurate, as they don't reflect the new and bigger base the Democrats are going to pull. They have DOUBLED Republican turnout #s in elections and caucuses. That is the most significant "poll."
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I'd Say "Encouraged"
I think once people can actually dig past the Traditional Media's smokescreen, they will see McCain for what he is: absolutely unfit to lead a Tempe-area Moose Lodge, let alone the United States.
I'm just waiting for his famous temper to flare up during a debate. Please please PLEASE, make sure a moderator can ask a question (say, about the Keating Five) good enough to make the old fart blow a head gasket. Now THAT would be good TV!
Don't forget the moral problems: Came back from Vietnam and started banging anything with a vagina as long as it wasn't attached to his no-longer-stunning first wife, after she was disfigured in a car accident. Married one of his stable of gals willing to help him commit adultery-- coincidentally, she's rich as all git-out.
(Memo to McCain: Yeah, she's a "trollop"-- after all, she willingly let you f*ck her while you were married; but I'd be very careful about calling your Akita-eyed blonde meal ticket a "c*nt" when she's holding the checkbook that keeps you in luxury homes and private jets.)
You're correct in pointing out that his policy positions won't stand up to half a minute's scrutiny. But let's list his personal weaknesses: Stupid, incurious, ego-driven, absolutely intolerant of anything less than slavish adoration of His Royal Highness....
Let's sum it up with this: He's George W. Bush with an actual military background. And not a very good one; sixth-to-last in his graduating class, wasn't it? Destroyed four planes while learning to fly, right?
Sounds like Bill the Cat's campaign slogan from good ol' "Bloom County":
This time, why not the WORST?!
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It's Meaningless at this Point
McCain has stayed below the radar, no one is actively digging up dirt, and all attention is on the Democrats. Once the nomination is decided, and we Democrats have taken a deep breath and come back to our senses (deciding that neither Obama nor Hillary are Satan), McCain's skeletons will start coming out of the closet and he's in for a rough ride. While I think McCain is generally an intelligent person, he's a terrible speaker and debater, especially up against either Obama or Clinton.
The good thing about this early ugliness is that a lot of issues against Obama and Clinton are being vetted, and the public is already tired of hearing about them. When McCain goes to push those same issues, people are already going to be sick of hearing them. I can't imagine anyone caring about Obama's preacher or Clinton's Bosnia episode 6 months from now during the generals. Attacks on McCain, however, will be fresh and juicy.
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The Reality of Presidential Politics for Democrats
Democrats who think that this election should or will be won easily need to reassess and work a lot harder. Recent presidential election history suggests that presidential elections are the Republicans' to lose. In the last ten presidential elections, Democrats have won only three times. Carter's was a squeaker, and Clinton's were hardly landslides.
By contrast, the GOP candidate has twice won 49 of the 50 states during that time. No Democrat realistically has a chance to do that unless he/she figures out a way to compete in Utah, Wyoming, Mississippi, the Dakotas, and the large swath of other states that vote almost routinely and reflexively for the Republican ticket. Democrats generally need to win almost all the states where they can compete. California and New York have become much friendlier in recent years, but Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida still remain potentially competitive, even today.
So being tied is probably good news at this point, before the battle is fully engaged. Normally, one would expect the Republican to be ahead. But no Democrat will win the Presidency just because the Republicans have totally messed things up, regardless of how bad things get.
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I'm not too afraid, yet
I would guess about 1/4 to 1/3 of Clinton supporters are saying they'd vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee, and ditto for the Obama supporters. I don't think that will last. I think ultimately only a tiny minority of supporters will never get over their loss, and either stay at home or go for McCain. Once the nomination is settled, and ill feelings fade, I think people will rally around whoever the nominee is, and McCain will be back down 15 points.