Letters to the Editor
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So The Result
Is still Obama losing Pennsylvania despite outspending Hillary 4-1.
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One note W.E.S. missed the main result
Here's the result:
The Gallup Daily Tracking poll shows Obama maintaining his lead, with "a 51% to 40% margin in the April 12-14 average." The 11-point margin in the poll, taken in the midst of the media flare-up, "is the largest for Obama this year, and marks the ninth consecutive day in which Obama has led Clinton by a statistically significant margin."
I understand, you couldn't care less how much people prefer Obama to Clinton nationwide, or how he polls better than McCain versus how Clinton compares to McCain. You're happy for the Dems to lose, so long as you can cheer for Clinton. It's a self-destructive belief of yours that you can't expect many people to share.
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There was one poll that showed large movement.
The American Research Group showed Obama down 20% relative to Hillary. It was the first poll out after the flap began. However, one has to take their polls with a grain of salt, as they've been a fairly consistent outlier when measuring Bush's popularity.
http://pollkatz.homestead.com/files/disapproval-data_files/zzzmainGRAPHICS_15975_image001.gif
These newer, and generally more reliable polls, seem more likely to reflect the true situation.
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It's the Machine, Stupid
PA is a Machine state. Hillary has won in all of the machine states except for IL. It's not about the economic capital in Machine states, it's about the human capital, and with Rendell, Nutter, that kid mayor from Pittsburgh, and all of the other levers of power supporting Hillary, she should win by 20 points.
In the fall, the machine will work for Obama. I'm not worried.
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The "bitter" flap has done one thing
It has confirmed in my mind my thought that Hillary is unfit for the Presidency. I will vote for her, if I must, in the GE, but will not contribute to her campaign.
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Iowa Electronic Markets
And the Iowa Electronic Market for the Democratic nomination—the most accurate indicator available—holds steady at $.76 on the dollar for Obama, $.21 for Hillary ($.04"other").
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One Note WES...LOL!!
A Clinton supporter not getting the point? Alert the media...
Actually, since it doesn't look like a landslide, she ought to have saved that shot while she drafts her buh-bye speech.
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He's not Polling Better Against McCain
He's lost 10 points to McCain in the last week plus..........See, this is the problem with using polling of democrats to say Obama has not been hurt.
Dummies.
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Bitter Grapes
Do they not know about the "bitter" episode?
Do people know and find it a stupid distraction?
Or do people just not care if they're justifiably bitter and someone calls them bitter?
The last is my slant on the matter. Just because you're bitter and angry doesn't mean you don't have good reason to be. It's what you do with the anger and bitterness that matters (bigotry and hatred, for example, would be bad uses).
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Affect which race?
The "flap" won't affect the nomination directly, even if Obama's numbers fall by a huge amount.
Penn is a proportional state, it will very difficult for Clinton to make up delegates unless she wins 62.5% or more of the vote. That's very unlikely to happen.
Most districts have 4 delegates, and they are awarded by vote. Most are going to go 2-2, in the largest districts; most will be 3-2 either way. A few might go 7-2 in Obama's favor because of the demographics.
Since a majority of those who are eligible to vote in the primary are not offended by Obama’s statement, it’s not going to have much of a direct impact on the voting.
The only way it will matter is if it continues to remain an issue that reduces Obama’s numbers in the general election, and it does seem as if he has hurt himself there. Many view his statement negatively, but their votes don’t matter until the general election.
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Obamessiah the HyperJesus will simply go back in time and do it over again.
No matter what, his followers here will proclaim a Great Victory against the Forces of Darkness and then they will of course call for everyone who disagrees with them to be exterminated.
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My god, WES
I rarely insult people, but you are such a loser. What are you going to do when Clinton finally bows out? Smear your crap on walls?
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Hutman
I already told you..........If Obama wins the nomination but loses the general, Hillary is a given to be the nominee in 2012. If Obama wins the general, he's promised a whole lot of hope and change. It doesn't happen and Hillary will come after him as the sitting President in the 2012 primaries. Hillary ain't going anywhere.
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Contrarian
I know everyone in the media and the political players are freaking out about this, but what's the big deal about "bitter"?
I mean shouldn't people be bitter? Maybe the tone was off, but come on, the Fed is bending over backwards to helping rich bankers, while politicians talk about moral responsibility when it comes to middle and working class people losing. And that's just one and many many examples.
Wake up people. Difference between Democrats and Republicans: Dems back down and cringe in the face of criticism, and then turn on each other and their leaders. Repubs repeat what the said even louder, and ban together behind their leaders even if they know they're wrong, then laugh while Dems back away sheepishly.
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WES Polling better?
WES, The good thing about polls is that you can pick the one you like.
Which one are you referring to?
The Gallup daily shows 46/44 in favor of Obama over McCain. That's a tossup when you factor in the MoE and the other 10%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106537/Gallup-Daily-Obama-51-Clinton-40.aspx
I've seen others showing that Obama ahead in MI, behind in FL compared to McCain. fivethirtyeight.com shows McCain ahead by 279/259 in estimated electoral votes against Obama.
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"this flap is starting to look a bit underwhelming"?
Please. Its hardly a flap and it was underwhelming from the beginning. Stop projecting Clinton's failures on Obama.
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Fester
Right. Obama has gone from doing better against McCain than Hillary to the same or even worse in some polls and in some states.
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Totally Off Topic...
...But I wanted to post this somewhere where other people would see it (as opposed to sending it directly to Salon in an e-mail). Does anyone else see the horrible irony in Salon accepting advertising dollars from the Air Force and running their ads on the "War Room" page? I'm all for free speech and making money (I am a small business owner, myself), but maybe Salon should have some guidelines in terms of who they accept money from.