Letters to the Editor
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Shouldn't you put an update on this write-up, Katharine?
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03/27/827746.aspx
The WSJ/MSNBC poll oversampled African Americans. Polls are supposed to represent population percentages of national demographics, yet this poll sampled twice as much of african-americans as populate the US. Since they are going for Obama 9 out of 10, no wonder the stats are skewed.
This shows 11% were AA which would be 77 out of 700. But, they state they oversampled by 100 which means 177 were AA (25%).
And have you searched through the text of the polling data from the PEW poll? If you had, you would know it says:
These patterns suggest the potential for future reverberations from the Wright controversy if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. More conservative beliefs about equal rights and race are not only related to negative opinions of Obama among Democrats, suggesting the potential for defections among Democratic voters, but also are associated with negative views of him in the electorate at large.
An analysis of the survey finds that holding conservative positions on political and social values is associated with a greater likelihood of supporting McCain over Obama among Republicans, Democrats and independents, and all demographic groups. In contrast, however, this pattern is much less apparent in the Clinton-McCain matchup, excepting views about women in leadership roles.
One of the few negative trends for Obama following the Wright affair is that a larger number of conservative Republicans hold a very unfavorable opinion of him in the new poll than did so in February. The survey also finds that Obama no longer enjoys the favorable image rating advantage over McCain among independents that was apparent in previous polls. ..
- Nearly six-in-ten Democratic voters (57%) believe that Obama is most likely to win the party's nomination, while 28% expect Clinton to prevail. Last month, 70% said Obama was most likely to win, while 17% expected Clinton to win.
This is a delta difference of postive 11% in favor of Clinton with a delta difference of negative 13% for Obama. The winds are shifting because of Wright.
Hello! Analysis would be great here Katharine, not just reguritation!