Letters to the Editor
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@Mike J
Exactly
It's not that it needs to make any logical sense, it just needs to LOOK like you can win.
Pennsylvania is a "blue-collar" state, so is Ohio and Michigan. Who won those? Hillary. What states will be battleground states? Those 3. Who is the democratic base? Voters in those states. You could argue that Iowa, Wisconsin and perhaps, Virginia are also in there but who has the bigger delegate count? Hillary victory states.
What happens if Flordia is seated or has a re-vote? Hillary is going to play strong there and will probably win.
Now what? Well of course CA, WA, OR, MA, NY will go for Obama, they have in the last few elections. But she also took AZ (not in contest for Nov due to McCain being a senator there), NM, and NV.
See how this perception thing is working now? I totally agree with most of you on the fact that all states are important and we have a delegate system, which Obama will win. But the issue here is not that system, it's the superdelegates. They do not have to follow their state, their district or their party. They can vote for whomever they want.
So I ask you this: If Hillary has the popular vote, is losing by 100 pledged delegates, the MI/FL thing works in her favor somehow (or even is a nonfactor as it is now), and she wins PA....What way do you think the superdelegates go? What if she convinces Obama to accept the VP? Now what do they do?
It's not just a numbers game people, it's a perception game. All you need to do is have the perception you are a winner. Hillary got that on Tuesday with OH/TX. If she takes the popular vote before this is over, I don't see any way of stopping her getting the nomination or at least somewhat legitimately claiming she should be the nominee. Honestly? I think she has a pretty good claim to it under this scenario. It's the only scenario besides gaining the delegate lead, which won't happen, but honestly ask yourself what realistically will happen here. What is best for the party?
Interesting isn't it?
BTW, I'm an Obama supporter.
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@billcap
billcap: "I've said it before and will say it again. My own view is since this will be pretty much a tie at the end of the game (the difference in popular vote being very small I'm guessing),"
Is it a tie if Obama has 75 to 125 more delegates/superdelegates than Clinton? How?
billcap: "...it makes sense to me to run a Hillary/Obama ticket"
Why assume Hillary on top, especially if she gets less delegates?
billcap: "based on the fact that both are great candidates,"
Not a reason to put Hillary on top, or even for her to be on the ticket, since she's not a match with Obama's style/approach.
billcap: "...that a roughly equal number of democrats wants each one,"
Not an argument for joining them, or for Hillary on top.
billcap: "...that Hillary is older and so Obama can wait more easily "his turn","
Her being older is meaningless and has nothing to do with recent history, in which VPs often are older (Johnson, Cheney, etc.). The whole idea of Obama "waiting his turn" makes more sense in grade-school recess than in politics where an entire country's future is at stake.
billcap: "...that the opposite order doesn't bring the same synthesis (for instance, I think you can run well on Experience coupled with Change but not so well on Change coupled with Experience),"
This is an assertion without a corresponding argument. In fact, the opposite assertion could be feasibly made. (What's so wrong about Change backed up by Experience?)
billcap: "...and, perhaps most importantly, it gives the biggest chance for a Democratic victory."
Nowhere have you provided any evidence/argument for this conclusion. Not at all. It flies in the face of most polls.
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Really Sort Of A Win For Hillary
She did a lot better here than you might have expected. In states bordering Wyoming, she lost by 34 points, 48 points, and 62 points. Here she loses by just 23. And an Obama net gain of 2 delegates is a lot better than a net gain of 4, which one might have expected going into the caucus. If she can get to within single digits of Obama in Mississippi, then we'll know she's really making headway. He ought to win there by at least 15.
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By the way, don't think the Dem nominee will roll McCain in Nov
Just because the turnout for the republican's is low doesn't mean much. McCain had this thing wrapped up awhile ago and those numbers don't translate into much in November. The election will be closer than I think most people realize right now.
Of course I could be wrong, but I don't want to see people get stuck in our little blogsphere bubbles like when Kerry "couldn't lose".
We gotta fight for this one. The GOP is going to make a fight and it's going to look good. Look being the key word there.
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Ed Rendell will be a big factor in PA.
He plans to stump for Hillary in much the same way that Strickland did here in Ohio for her. That man threw his heart and soul into marching around the state for her, and it worked big time. When a popular governor throws his considerable weight behind a candidate, his influence, not to mention his entrenched connections, makes a big difference.
Not sure I think this is fair, but I could be talked into it. What do you all think?
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Sending Obama to the back of the bus is not smart politics
billcap: "...that Hillary is older and so Obama can wait more easily "his turn","
xrandadu: Her being older is meaningless and has nothing to do with recent history, in which VPs often are older (Johnson, Cheney, etc.). The whole idea of Obama "waiting his turn" makes more sense in grade-school recess than in politics where an entire country's future is at stake.
I agree with xrandadu. If Clinton's age (60) means she should have the Presidential spot before she gets too old, then it would follow that she should not run when she is 64 or 68. If McCain wins and serves four or eight years, should Clinton not run against him?
The idea that Obama should not take the Presidential nomination if the majority of Democrats and elected delegates choose him, under the rationale that he should give up his seat for the white candidate, is likely to cause a backlash from all but Clinton's most ardent supporters. Hush that fuss.