Letters to the Editor
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If you think about it ...
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR OBAMA!!!
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Not to be a nag, but...
Since no one knows exactly what the delegate count is, you might want to provide attribution for your 1534-1433 figure. It's significantly lower (and less favorable to Obama) than the AP total (1578-1468), which is the most oft-cited one I've seen.
And maybe this wasn't mentioned because there's already another analysis piece being written, but it wouldn't have been out of place to mention that Hillary's momentum coming out of last Tuesday didn't seem to help her much. True, she was never expected to win the state, but she and her husband obviously did make a last-minute push for an upset, and she still got beat by 19 points.
Obviously, I'm an Obama partisan, and I'm hyper-sensitive to any bias against my candidate, real or imagined. But after the week he had, which was supposed to be the beginning of a momentum swing for Hillary according to the conventional wisdom, I think it would have been worth putting this victory in that context, not simply mentioning that it was an expected win in a sparsely-populated Republican state. Expected or not, it was still decisive, and delegate-wise, it most likely negated Hillary's Texas primary victory.
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Spin
Saw elsewhere that Clinton's campaign says they're very pleased at the "near-split" in Wyoming, where Obama won a higher percentage than Clinton got in either of her supposedly historic victories in Ohio and Texas (the latter of which she will actually lose once the delegates are totaled up). It must be nice living in the fantasy bubble.
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Latest Wyoming results (for serious primary junkies only)
MSNBC has what it claims to be final results with 100% of precincts reportings (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228629).
Adding all the county-level results, I get:
Obama: 5,378 votes (61%)
Clinton: 3,312 votes (38%)
Uncommitted: 63 votes (1%)
Total turnout: 8,753. Which equals about 12.5% of the number of people who voted for Kerry in Wyoming in 2004 -- pretty average for caucus states this year.
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Whoops
My mistake: Obama won the caucus 61-38 with all districts reporting, so that's a 23-point spread, not a 19-point spread as I mentioned previously.
Anyway, that just emphasizes my original point: Shouldn't it be a bigger deal when the candidate who's supposed to be fading still gets over 60% more votes than his opponent in the first contest after the momentum was supposed to have shifted?
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Can do...
Keep stackin' 'em up!
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Spin This...
I'm sure the Hildebeast will ignore this solid Obama win under her "Insult 40 States" strategy; Mississippi too. How long will this charade go on?
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The nomination contest is over
Here are the four important hurdles - pledged delegates, popular vote, states won and crossover appeal in the general election.
Obama will win pledged delegates. HRC must win the remaining few states/territories (including IN,NC,MS,OR) by Obama-type landslide margins to equal him in popular vote. He already has 28 state victories, so unless we add 6 more states to the Union before Memorial Day that issue is settled. Finally, regarding crossover appeal - we know Rush Limbaugh and every other Republican jackass is praying/hoping/dreaming/working for Hillary to be the nominee. Furthermore, the 2004 swing states contested by Democrats so far are WI, OH, MO, MN, NM, IA, and WA. Obama, as nominee, will add VA, CO, NE, and maybe even KS to the list.
Why are we even bothering with this discussion?
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I wouldn't get worked up over how Hillary spins it
It doesn't matter. Neither does MS. Sure, I agree that they are delegates and a win is a win, but the only state that matters anymore is Pennsylvania. If Hillary wins that state by more than 5 points, it's going to be a rough convention.
Here are the outcomes I see after PA vote(assuming the highly unlikely scenario that Hillary can get a pledged delegate lead)
1 - Obama wins PA, contest over. Hillary drops out, Obama goes on to win November.
2 - Hillary wins PA and gets lead in popular vote by the end. Hillary swings supers to her, promises Obama VP, she's nominee.
3 - Hillary wins PA and doesn't get popular vote, she fights all the way to the bitter end slinging mud as much as possible, takes up the media spot light, Obama loses in November due to a hideous primary that allowed the GOP to mobilize and gain free ammunition from Hillary.
For this to finally be over and for him to win in November, Obama must win PA. There is no other decisive way to do it. He missed his chance in TX and OH, but that's all over now. He might have the delegate lead but you can't honestly tell me that Hillary doesn't have some plan set up if she wins PA and still doesn't close the gap in delegates. If she gets the popular vote somehow, I honestly think the pledged delegates won't matter a bit if she promises the VP spot to Obama after the supers swing her way, which she'll strongarm to vote for her.
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Oh and the MI/FL thing
I'm assuming that this won't be decided by the PA vote. If Hillary wins PA, then the MI/FL re-vote or not will benefit her and allow her to gain more popular vote or more delegates, which again probably do not matter anymore since she cannot reasonably take the lead.
It's all on PA.
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If they won't caucus, what will they do?
After hearing Hillary supporters complain caucuses are unfair because her supporters are less likely to show up than Obama supporters, a question comes to mind. If Hillary's supporters can't be bothered to spend a couple hours at a caucus, can they be counted on to spend a few hours knocking on doors in October? That Obama is winning caucuses is not a knock. On the contrary, it's a reason for thinking his supporters are more likely to do the grunt work in the general election that will give our presidential candidate coattails for candidates down the ballot. I'm also thinking the win Obama had in the Texas caucuses raises a question of how many Hillary voters were really Republicans trying to screw up the Democratic primary.
Just to give us a smile, I heard from Thom Hartmann that callers to Rush Limbaugh complained that after doing as he asked and taking a Democratic ballot to vote for Hillary, they were miffed to find they couldn't vote for Republicans in the other races. No one told them that's how primaries work! Primaries have only been around for 100 years, so no reason they should know that.