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Quarter of Clinton supporters would vote McCain over Obama
A survey by the Pew Research Center shows that, if their candidate were not the nominee, more Clinton voters than Obama voters would defect, and the Clinton campaign trumpets the results.
Alex Koppelman [2008-03-03]

  • A quarter of the small slice of the pie

    Obama has the largest slice of the popular primary vote (a near majority). 25% of Clinton's vote is less than 25% of Obama's vote totals, 10% is less than 10%. The article compares 10% of an unstated larger number to 25% of a smaller unstated number, so comparing the percentages are misleading when determining what vote loss actually means for the party. Given the electoral college, you would also need to look at the question state-by-state.

    The numbers also ignore new net Democratic voters over new Republicans.

    It is easier, and more relevant, to query how Clinton or Obama match McCain head to head among likely voters and compare those percentages. Obama has been polling better nationally against McCain than Clinton versus McCain in recent polls. Again, state-by-state polls would added together would be more relevant, but a national poll would better support Clinton's assertion that she should be the candidate than the Pew research.

    As Twain said, lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    -- JackSparx
    [Read JackSparx's other letters]
    Monday, March 3, 2008 05:07 PM
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