Letters to the Editor
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Chelsea could have stayed home
It was such a wonderful experience actually participating in a primary (actually a caucus) that counted for a change - and voting for a local boy, too! The lines were endless, the ballots ran out, confusion was rampant, but the enthusiasm and cooperation were amazing. With the golden moon shining in a balmy sky, it was a beautiful night all around. I'm hoping we surpass Washington D.C. with our margin of victory. Go Obama!
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Hawaii 5-0bama
"Book 'em, Danobama."
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Aloha Hawaii!
We love you!
Xrandadu - very cute!
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Congrats Obama
I know Hawii has some unique demographics. I wonder which ones Hillary won.
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Congratulations To Obama
For his victories.........But I haven't turned on the tube this morning. Is his speech over yet?
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Notorious
He gives an inspirational speech and he's an "empty suit". He spends time to lay out some detail and it's boooooooring.
What do you want? I mean besides a Clinton coronation.
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I Didn't Say It Was Boring
But the people in the arena started looking bored about midway through. They're his people. He better take a lesson from that.
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Quick, Somebody Pass W.E.S. the Prozac and the Number for the Mental Health Hotline...
because the end is almost near.
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The End
Is liable to be the party wishing it had nominated Hillary.
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Sorry W.E.S.
No way you're gonna spin this in your favor today, my dear. Your girl is toast, and everyone knows it.
And you've done your part to help her demise, at least with Salonistas.
Obama thanks you!
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I Didn't Realize I Was So Powerful
I'm humbled.
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Do re mi fa so la ti do
What's that big-boned lady doin'?
(And why is she wearin' a Stetson?)
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There's Also The Little matter Of V.P.
From my observations of the Obama people around here, if it had gone to the convention with each side having 1500 plus delegates with Hillary in the lead and she didn't offer Obama the V.P. his flock would have had a heart attack and bolted the general.
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Where the Race is now
What I haven't seen up until now is what the delegate count would have looked like had the Democratic race been run similar to the Republicans: that is, winner take all.
This morning, post Hawaii and Wisconsin, I took the delegate tables as posted on Real Politics and calculated what that kind of breakdown would look like to date.
What I came up with is this: Obama would be even further in the lead of pledged delegates. 1215 to Clinton's 950. I'm not counting Florida nor Michigan.
Adding RP's count of Superdelegates bring Obama to 1384, and Clinton 1189. About 30 more delegates for Obama, 74 fewer for Clinton. But still roughly around where they are now.
So where exactly are the big flaws in the current system?
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The Flaw
Is caucuses, where most voters are not really into going to some place, debate, argue, talk and then vote and depending on results re-vote and reargue and spending a few hours at the bullshit. So whatever candidate can get a small posse of yahoos to show up and do that at each site gets a bunch of delegates. Based on a tiny percentage of the population and electorate.
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I'd Say The System To Have
Is on one day have all 50 states have regular primaries, winner take all delegates from each state and add them up.
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The Overall Delegate Count
Is very close.............In caucus states Obama is up about 2-1 in delegates awarded.
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The new metrics
Based on the idea that if a person wins most states, most pledged delegates, and most votes they should get the nomination and some estimates on how the delegates will be portioned out based on the HI and WI votes:
Pledged Delegates: Clinton needs about 598 to get a majority of pledged delegates of about 60% of the pledged delegates from March 4th forward. Obama needs about 428 pledged or 42% of the pledged delegates.
States: Obama needs one more to get 25 states, he IMO has the tie breaker with Washington DC. Hillary can only get 25 states if she wins all 14 of the upcoming constests.
Votes: Based on this spreadsheet from a blogger at Kos (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pRkCa8hgD4bOxFiEJIIx_YA) and the CNN results, it looks like Obama has at least a million vote edge right now.
So in order for Clinton to out an out wins she needs to get 20 point victory margins on _Average_ in the rest of the contests. Not just in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania; but in Oregon, Mississippi, North Carolina, Deleware, Montana, and so on. It means getting a 35 point swing from what she got last night in Wisconsin which has the demographics she is counting on to win.
The are only two ways to do this: She could come out, speak from the heart and present astounding policy proposals that inspire voters around the country. Which if she does that, great, everyone wins.
Or she has to go super negative, far beyond what she and her supporters have done so far. Before going this route she has to ask herself if her ego is really worth tearing down a great candidate that is inspiring the party.
Clinton would get some breathing room if Michigan and Florida held new and valid contests but not tons of it.
I was interested in a 50 state campaign because I thought it would be about a marketplace of ideas regarding the direction of this country. After a week of watching Senator Clinton's campaign act like an aggrieved schoolchild (Teacher! Teacher! Barack and Deval are working off of each other's papaers and Barack still won't debate me!) I'd like to see her step aside.
She has a mathmatical chance, of winning but it isn't remotely close to likely based on how voters have been acting.
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Obama Ohana
This isn't my idea (Wagner James Au came up with it) but it's worth repeating: Obama is a Hawaiian, raised in its cultural environment of cooperation and harmony, like that of an extended family (ohana). I hope he brings out that angle at some point in the campaign because everybody loves Hawaii.
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It doesn't really count
Everybody knows that the only states that really matter are primary states where all of the voters are 65-year old white women who come from union households. Letting a whole bunch of dark folks and hippies get together and talk about what they want in a leader will be the death of this country.