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• Saturday, February 9, 2008 11:07 PM

  Theory on Caucuses (WA at least)

  I think Sen Obama has had advantages in caucuses for a couple of reasons:

  First, if other caucus states are like Washington there isn't a high barrier to entry, which makes it easy on newcomers. People were required to be registered voters but registration could be done same day at the caucus. The requirment to be a Democrat is that the person needs to declare that they are Democrats. It is on the honor system and a person can switch between caucuses or primaries but since both parties caucus on the same day it isn't like a person could go to both.

  So if a person saw Sen Obama at Key Arena on Friday and were really inspired, they could participate in the process on Saturday even if they weren't prepared to participate before that.

  Second, caucuses are immediate, everyone votes on the same day. Most primaries have absentee ballots, so a lot of votes are made based on voters' preferences from weeks ago. At the rate people have been changing their minds that time difference can be considerable. I think a lot of Sen Clintons success in places like California is that people mailed their ballots in before Sen Obama did any campaigning there.

  I think as this contest goes on the difference between primary results and caucus results will narrow.

  Side Comments:

  It may seem weird that the Democratic party in Washington State doesn't base any delegates on the primary results but the history is that the primary is forced on us by our otherwise even handed Republican Secretary of State Sam Reed. We're forced to have a primary, that doesn't mean we have to make them meaningful.

  Also, at what point do news orgainizations stop talking about proportional delegates like they are a 50/50 split. That is case when the margins are close (within 10%) and there are an even number of delegates for the legislative districts. Talking about today's results a splitting of delegates is like saying that a person who eats 2/3 of a pizza split it with the person that ate 1/3 of a pizza. Sure both people got some pizza, but one got twice as much.

  —snoman Read snoman's other letters
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