My thanks to Mr. Grieve for his comment about Edward's splitting the progressive vote, it was an insight that had not occurred to me. Once again, the American system proves its vulnerability to Arrow's Paradox of Voting.

Unfortunately. In Iowa, the caucus is a public event. In NH, in the privacy of the voting booth, Barack's lead melted away. I was expecting to see black people rioting in the streets when I woke up this morning, it seems so obvious.

Hillary is not electable in the GE, she is too hated. Barack is not electable in the primaries. That leaves Edwards, who is the most genuinely progressive candidate anyway, so that suits me fine. Except it is sick, and alienating, that racism is still thriving in this century.

and the system is a disgrace, but it's too late to change it in this election cycle. I think he is splitting the progressive vote and throwing the election to Hillary. I'm not sure whether or not I would prefer Edwards or Obama, but I wish Edwards would drop out already.

Looking at how the votes broke down in that NYT survey, I definitely came away with it thinking that Edwards bled votes from Obama.

He's like an open wound, and will likely remain so until he runs out of money. I wonder if Edwards people will opt for Obama, or if they'll sit on their hands. I feel that Richardson's a Clinton placeholder -- I'm not sure why he's still in it, because I think any Richardson votes will go to Clinton once he's out of it. But the Edwards people, I don't know where they'll go.

Why would Edwards drop out right before South Carolina, his home state? He is almost obligated to stay in the race through that primary.

Why are we assuming that race is the issue with Obama? Because more women voted for Hillary? The white woman who asked Hillary the question that caused her to tear up and get emotional was on TV this morning saying she actually voted for Obama and was very sorry he lost.

Let's be patient. This is the beginning of a long process. The problem with our whole political system is that everyone is constantly jumping to conclusions based on very little evidence and the event of the day. There are many days and much more thoughtful dialogue (hopefully) to be held before this is over.

My take on this is slightly different. I think Edwards has driven almost all the issues in this race. The others had to put up health cares plans after he did (I think his is still the best). He has forced the others to talk about lobbyists and "insider Washington" which has worked to Obama's favor, I think. I think Obama has been forced to take a more progressive tone because Edwards is in the race. I think if Edwards weren't in the race, I'd be voting Clinton, although everyone else I know would be going Obama, so it might not even be a wash, but I think we are all lucky to have Edwards sticking in there.

The weird thing about Edwards is that he is both progressive and establishment.

Edwards is campaigning on a populist, "let's get corporations out of politics" message. But he's also the "safe-bet" Southern white male. People who support Edwards the populist will likely vote for Obama. People who support Edwards the establishment man will likely vote for Clinton.

So I'm not convinced where the majority of Edwards supporters would go if he bows out. And does it make a difference if he bows out early or late?

Aside: I am truly psyched over Hillary Clinton's win. I haven't made up my mind yet about who I'm supporting, but Hillary Clinton's N.H. win was historic. And the punditocracy was writing her political obituary after one vote in the Iowa Caucus! Heck, why even bother with the primaries and even the general election?

Suck it, pundits!

I think that will continue and could make a difference in close contests. He could end up the Ralph Nader of the primaries. I also wonder if some independats switch from Obama to McCain at the last minute. They may have figured Obama was headed towards a big win and they could toss their vote to McCain to damage Romney.

I was leaning towards Edwards, but he's gotten kind of shrill. He's too adversarial. He's moving too far into Howard Beal territory. I would hate to see him stay in the race simply to play spoiler.

There is a long way to go. I want Edwards in the race. He is the guy keeping Clinton and Obama from completely pandering to the right. He is the guy with enough mojo to keep them slightly progressive. Without him, they are completely GOP Lite. If Edwards cannot win, which I hope he can, he at leasts keeps the two Democratic candidates who are receiving the most money from corporations slightly thinking a little about us, the people.

Based on Edwards' public statements since last night, it sounds like his new strategy is to go after Obama now and try to take him out in an attempt to make it a two-way between him and Hillary. Good luck with that...

I've been saying for a while that the best chance of Obama's becoming the nominee was for Edwards to drop out early. It seemed clear to me that ex-Edwards supporters would disproportionately move over to Obama if Edwards dropped out (however, I'm not sure it works the other way around - I don't think ex-Obama supporters would necessarily flock to Edwards if Obama dropped out).

Of course, it never seemed as though there was any chance that Edwards would drop out before South Carolina, since it was one of the only states he won in the 2004 primaries (the other was North Carolina). My guess is that Edwards is in it until Super Tuesday, where he will push his I'm-Electable-Because-I'm-A-White-Guy-From-The-South theory. Which would be a wonderful theory, if John Kerry - a uncharismatic Yankee - hadn't beaten him in every Southern primary except the Carolinas in 2004(of course, Kerry mostly won because Democrats seemed to have decided early on just to untify behind the frontrunner - if the Hillary v. Obama fight drags on through the southern primaries, Edwards could pull off his Southern strategy).

In other words, I think Obama's best chance is if Edwards quits (because they'll no longer split the anti-Hillary vote) and Edwards' best chance is if Obama stays in (on the premise that the worst thing for Edwards in the South is if the Democrats suddenly decide they want to untify behind the frontrunner).