Letters to the Editor
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The Edwards factor
Based on Edwards' public statements since last night, it sounds like his new strategy is to go after Obama now and try to take him out in an attempt to make it a two-way between him and Hillary. Good luck with that...
I've been saying for a while that the best chance of Obama's becoming the nominee was for Edwards to drop out early. It seemed clear to me that ex-Edwards supporters would disproportionately move over to Obama if Edwards dropped out (however, I'm not sure it works the other way around - I don't think ex-Obama supporters would necessarily flock to Edwards if Obama dropped out).
Of course, it never seemed as though there was any chance that Edwards would drop out before South Carolina, since it was one of the only states he won in the 2004 primaries (the other was North Carolina). My guess is that Edwards is in it until Super Tuesday, where he will push his I'm-Electable-Because-I'm-A-White-Guy-From-The-South theory. Which would be a wonderful theory, if John Kerry - a uncharismatic Yankee - hadn't beaten him in every Southern primary except the Carolinas in 2004(of course, Kerry mostly won because Democrats seemed to have decided early on just to untify behind the frontrunner - if the Hillary v. Obama fight drags on through the southern primaries, Edwards could pull off his Southern strategy).
In other words, I think Obama's best chance is if Edwards quits (because they'll no longer split the anti-Hillary vote) and Edwards' best chance is if Obama stays in (on the premise that the worst thing for Edwards in the South is if the Democrats suddenly decide they want to untify behind the frontrunner).