Letters to the Editor
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Counting chickens
A real world, walking around and talking to your own neighbors will lead you to understand that people don't make rational choices. They make emotional choices. Every Republican, 'W' magnet sporting person I know would vote for Osama bin Satan before they voted for a Democrat. They might at this point dislike & distrust the Republicans but they'll vote for them anyway. The Republicans will lose a few seats here and there but America is retarded racist dumbass homophobic biblethumping anti intellectual country filled with retarded racist dumbass homophobic biblethumping anti intellectuals. That's what they do. Next time you want a turkey to fly, buy a pheasant.
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The last arrow in the GOP quiver
I've been amazed at how successfully the GOP has played the terror/national security card over recent years, but they may have gone to the well one time too often. Voters don't seem to ready to buy this line again, based on most polls.
Given widespread dissatisfaction with the direction they've taken the country, though, what else is there for Dubya and company to do if they want to avert disaster on November 7th? I fully expect them to again play politics with terrorism, with the only unknown being exactly WHEN they'll do it. My personal prediction: we'll learn of yet another "dire threat" that has been averted at almost the last minute, leading to elevation of the threat level to RED no later than Thursday, Nov. 2.
This "dire threat" will almost certainly be announced sometime during those last seven days leading up to Election Day, maximizing the effect on voters. How about a REALLY scary Halloween surprise -- perhaps a plot to blow up an East or West Coast harbor, or a major chemical plant near an urban area?
We're now at the orange/high alert level -- wait and see, we'll be at the red/severe alert level after Halloween!
Boo! Hey, pay attention, American voters -- BOO!!!
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Re: counting chickens
Boy, hope you don't ever run for office. That's the kind of thing that could *really* bite you in the ass....
Try to remember: it's not just a choice between "pull the Republican lever" and "pull the Democrat lever". There *are* a bunch of third parties that might attract a protest vote from those who can't stomach the thought of voting for someone with a D after their name. Or they might just stay home. If enough of them go one fo those routes, they might as well be voting Democrat, right?
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Republican voters
I know are large number of people who vote straight republican tickets, and that vast majority of them hate Bush more than most Democracts, and while many won't actually be voting for Democratic candidates, that doesn't matter because they aren't going to be voting for Republican candidates either.
Republicans win most elections on base turnout, without usually more motivated voters, they win because a higher percentage turn out and vote. That's why you see side strategies to get their base to vote, anti-gay marriage ballots and such.
With a majority of Republicans depressed about the State of the country and disgusted with their own party leaders, their turnout will be less than normal and this translate into far more Democratic victories.
I'm going out on a limb and saying 80% the Democrats win 24 additional seats in the House, and 20% that they take 35 or more.
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Remember They Do Have a Visible and Glaring Record
I realize that the Foley scandal has without doubt focused attention and it has certainly created an opportunity for Democrats and yes Independents (thanks for that reminder) to not only respond to this particular incident, but to also articulate what they will do differently.
The soundbite and talking point is that no one other the Republicans have a plan that will protect us.
First, others are now articulating very clear plans as well as defining differences and second, given the several events of the past 5 and a half years, I don't see how Republicans can claim to have protected us. Regardless of who they may seek to blame, these events DID happen on their watch, when they were in control, and when they were charged with protecting us.
One of our local stations in Madison, WI has added a really compelling piece to their election coverage. It's called Reality Check and for most of the adds that major candidates are airing, they're actually presenting an analysis of what was supported by evidence in the ad, what was technically true but skewed in evidence, and what was just blatantly not true. They have taken Dem and Republicans to task on the veracity of their ads.
Unfortunately, this approach won't likely make it into any national coverage. Too bad. It's such a great idea and actually seems to serve to help people make informed and considered decisions. It has a bit more substance than - stay the course, the Iraqis are tolerant, taking full responsibility, I just don't find 650,000 deaths credible, etc. You know basic analysis isn't really all that difficult, it's just not easy.
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One simple message
All the polling in the world means nothing if we don't get folks to the polls (leaving aside, for the moment, issues with paper-trailess electronic machines).
I urge all Democrats and progressives to be part of the get-out-the-vote effort. Work with the DNC, MoveOn.org or whatever effort you think has the greatest impact on getting folks to show up in November. As dissapointed as I'll be if we lose in a few weeks, I'll be livid if it's because folks were too apathetic to go to the polls.
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GOP Not Feeling the Love
There is little doubt that Bush and the Republicans are far less popular with their base then they were two years ago. The two diehard Republican's in my family have shifted from belittling Democrats and glorifiying all things Bush to voicing unhappiness for the Republican's lack of accomplishments and outright hostility towards Bush. In my very Republican Orange County community the area used to be plastered with "Support the Troops" signs and every other car seemed to sport a Bush/Cheney sticker. Today the signs are gone and one can go an entire week with out spying a Bush/Cheney sticker. Of Course they will still vote Republican, but it won't be with much enthusiasm.