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It's true. I don't claim all-seeing perspective yet, and still I see things shaping up in very ominous ways. Unlike the last great tension (the Cold War) there is no balancing between two global powers with both having causes to project and territories to defend. This time, it's one global power facing off against a diffuse multitude of small, often non-state oppponents, and on top of that, multiple regional conflicts in which the lines of support and opposition are often quite thinly drawn.
My own bet for the hottest "trouble spot" is still Kashimir, simply because it features two nuclear-armed opponents facing each other with a good cast of non-state actors thrown in to muddy the mix. That said, the Middle East certainly seems to be heating up in its own intractable ways - is there really anything that all parties there can ever find agreeable as a way of reducing tensions?
Climate change is the wild card. If floods of refugees begin to move around the world, we will see things I suspect we can not now imagine. And since many seem unwilling to say it, I will: A large part of man-made climate change is not only attributable to US fossil fuel consumption, but in general to the ever-rising population worldwide. And that rising population comes at a high cost - especially in the developing world, where fertility rates are highest. Infrastructure development and maintenance cannot keep up with the rate of population increase. The simple capacity of many poorer nations to feed their people is straining. As they strip near areas of fuel wood, desertification increases, and the capacity to grow food crops shrinks. The spiral continues.
I'm the first to admit I have no solutions. I do think, though, that it's past time we see our highest calling as making life better for everyone worldwide, not blowing up significant numbers of "those other people" who don't think, look, or sound like us in order to control their resources. If people everywhere were well-fed and housed, would there really be as much insurrection and terrorism afoot? I think not.
