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This year's presidential election is simple, and here are the simple facts:
If McCain runs as a traditional Republican and continues to place himself square center with Bush and Republican policies he will lose in a landslide. All the polls consistantly show this.
If McCain runs as a reformer, he will not out-reform either Obama or Clinton. The eventual Democratic nominee will always be able to out-reform McCain. As McCain diverts from traditional Republican stances he loses his party's core, not so for the Democrat.
In this game of politics it is already checkmate.